Poor Man Survival
Self Reliance
tools for independent minded people…
ISSN 2161-5543
A
Digest of Urban Survival Resources
When we were at peace, Democrats wanted to raise taxes.
Now there's a war, so Democrats want to raise taxes.
When there was a surplus, Democrats wanted to raise taxes.
Now that there is a mild recession, Democrats want to raise taxes.
- Ann Coulter
Now there's a war, so Democrats want to raise taxes.
When there was a surplus, Democrats wanted to raise taxes.
Now that there is a mild recession, Democrats want to raise taxes.
- Ann Coulter
In the modern history of the US economy over the past seven
decades, the longest
period of time the country has gone without a recession was 10 years.
Since the end of World War II there have been 11 recessions in the United States of America, so the average time in between recessions is 6 years and 5 months.
The average length of recession was 336 days; the longest recession in modern history was 18 months in 2008-2009, and the shortest was 6 months in 1980.
And whenever a recession hits, the all-knowing, all-powerful Federal Reserve attempts to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates, typically multiple times.
The smallest interest rate cut was 2.03% during the 1990-1991 recession.
The largest interest rate cut during a recession was 9.84% during the 1981-1982 recession.
The average interest rate cut during a recession is 4.03% based on sixty years of Federal Reserve data.
In fact in every single recession in modern US history, interest rates were always MUCH lower at the end of the recession than they were at the beginning.
So if historical averages are any indicator, the next recession should begin some time between now and mid-2019, with an interest rate cut of 2% to 4%, presuming it’s just a mild to average recession.
This isn’t some wild fantasy.
Even the government’s own Congressional Budget Office recently revised its projections, stating that America’s prodigious (and rapidly growing) $19.5 trillion national debt “blunts” the prospect for meaningful economic growth.
Now, here’s the problem–
Interest rates right now are at historic lows. The effective Federal Funds Rate as of the first of this month was just 0.29%.
So unless the Fed raises rates by a LOT, and does so VERY quickly, the United States is virtually guaranteed negative interest rates in the next recession.
Negative rates, of course, are almost invariably accompanied by capital controls– legal restrictions to trap savings in a failed financial system.
We’re already seeing early signs of capital controls in Europe and Japan where interest rates are already negative.
European depositors suffer bank withdrawal restrictions, plus there’s strong momentum to ban physical cash (the natural remedy of negative interest rates).
This is just the beginning. And as anyone who has lived under capital controls can attest, they are destructive to your savings and standard of living.
Unfortunately negative interest rates are the most likely course of action.
Because if the Fed actually does start raising interest rates beyond some ceremonial 0.5% to 0.75% range in 2016 or 2017, they risk destabilizing the entre system.
Higher interest rates mean asset prices will fall, including real estate, stocks, and bonds.
That’s a huge problem for the Fed, which owns trillions of dollars worth of bonds and real estate securities.
In addition, the Fed is extremely leveraged, with capital of less than 1% of its total balance sheet.
So if asset prices fall by just 1% after the Fed raises interest rates, they will become insolvent.
It’s hard to even imagine the fallout and consequences of the world’s most important central bank going bust.
Higher rates also risk bankrupting the federal government, which is already borrowing record amounts of money just to pay interest on what they’ve already borrowed.
Plus, higher rates may slow down the US economy where both productivity and GDP growth have ground to a halt, even now when interest rates are at historic lows.
Talk about a rock and a hard place.
If the Fed raises rates significantly they will create all sorts of financial catastrophes, including engineering its own insolvency and stoking a recession that they’re trying to prevent.
But if they don’t raise rates then they’ll be forced to implement negative interest rates in the next recession.
This isn’t some far-fetched prediction, simply a common sense view of publicly available data and modern financial history.
Since the end of World War II there have been 11 recessions in the United States of America, so the average time in between recessions is 6 years and 5 months.
The average length of recession was 336 days; the longest recession in modern history was 18 months in 2008-2009, and the shortest was 6 months in 1980.
And whenever a recession hits, the all-knowing, all-powerful Federal Reserve attempts to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates, typically multiple times.
The smallest interest rate cut was 2.03% during the 1990-1991 recession.
The largest interest rate cut during a recession was 9.84% during the 1981-1982 recession.
The average interest rate cut during a recession is 4.03% based on sixty years of Federal Reserve data.
In fact in every single recession in modern US history, interest rates were always MUCH lower at the end of the recession than they were at the beginning.
So if historical averages are any indicator, the next recession should begin some time between now and mid-2019, with an interest rate cut of 2% to 4%, presuming it’s just a mild to average recession.
This isn’t some wild fantasy.
Even the government’s own Congressional Budget Office recently revised its projections, stating that America’s prodigious (and rapidly growing) $19.5 trillion national debt “blunts” the prospect for meaningful economic growth.
Now, here’s the problem–
Interest rates right now are at historic lows. The effective Federal Funds Rate as of the first of this month was just 0.29%.
So unless the Fed raises rates by a LOT, and does so VERY quickly, the United States is virtually guaranteed negative interest rates in the next recession.
Negative rates, of course, are almost invariably accompanied by capital controls– legal restrictions to trap savings in a failed financial system.
We’re already seeing early signs of capital controls in Europe and Japan where interest rates are already negative.
European depositors suffer bank withdrawal restrictions, plus there’s strong momentum to ban physical cash (the natural remedy of negative interest rates).
This is just the beginning. And as anyone who has lived under capital controls can attest, they are destructive to your savings and standard of living.
Unfortunately negative interest rates are the most likely course of action.
Because if the Fed actually does start raising interest rates beyond some ceremonial 0.5% to 0.75% range in 2016 or 2017, they risk destabilizing the entre system.
Higher interest rates mean asset prices will fall, including real estate, stocks, and bonds.
That’s a huge problem for the Fed, which owns trillions of dollars worth of bonds and real estate securities.
In addition, the Fed is extremely leveraged, with capital of less than 1% of its total balance sheet.
So if asset prices fall by just 1% after the Fed raises interest rates, they will become insolvent.
It’s hard to even imagine the fallout and consequences of the world’s most important central bank going bust.
Higher rates also risk bankrupting the federal government, which is already borrowing record amounts of money just to pay interest on what they’ve already borrowed.
Plus, higher rates may slow down the US economy where both productivity and GDP growth have ground to a halt, even now when interest rates are at historic lows.
Talk about a rock and a hard place.
If the Fed raises rates significantly they will create all sorts of financial catastrophes, including engineering its own insolvency and stoking a recession that they’re trying to prevent.
But if they don’t raise rates then they’ll be forced to implement negative interest rates in the next recession.
This isn’t some far-fetched prediction, simply a common sense view of publicly available data and modern financial history.
Simon Black
Founder, SovereignMan.com
Postscript & Bonus
The
Real War is on You!
America’s various phony “wars” – the
War on Poverty, the War on Drugs, the War on Terror – through a new lens. They
have peculiar characteristics not common to real wars:
They can’t be won. Poverty… drugs… terrorists – they will always be with us.
The “enemy” draws strength from the
war. You
pay people to be poor; you have more poor people. You make drugs illegal;
profits go up for criminal drug dealers.
They create new corrupt
public-private industries.
Combatants on both sides benefit; the
innocent public loses.
Because according to an official report leaked out by the Department of
Homeland Security, 2nd Amendment advocates are at the top of the "new terrorist
list"
(See full details in this report here)
(See full details in this report here)
I prefer to think of us Americans who love liberty and are sick and
tired of the growing number of unconstitutional government initiatives as
"new patriots" and it's our DUTY to protect our freedom - so
here's...
How To Beat The DHS "Gun-Spying" Program...
1. Don't Trust Your Gun Store
I know a lot of gun store owners and they're some of the most trustworthy patriots on the planet...
but don't expect them to go to jail protecting you.
The government's federal firearms bureau (BATF) has targeted gun
dealers, forcing them to virtually "spy" on their customers by
reporting on:
- Submit
reports on customers who purchase 2 or more pistols or semi-automatic
rifles...
- Notify
BATF of anyone who frequently buys high-powered rifles; and...
- Provide
all sales records "on demand" of ANYONE who has purchased a
semi-automatic rifle!
The government
has already used this information to conduct home visits to inspect firearms
and further investigate potential "threats".
Bottom line... know what they're looking for and avoid purchasing
firearms in a way that will raise a "red flag".
2. Become A "Digital
Ghost"
All cell phones are required to now have GPS tracking installed in order
to allow the National Alert System to send geographically-targeted public
safety alerts.
Because of the geographical positioning of your phone, that also means
that that the government has the ability to track your every move as long as
your phone is in use.
How often you visit a gun store... go to the gun range... how long you
stay... all available with the click of an agent's computer keys.
Your only option for opting out of this program is to turn your phone
off - so do exactly that when you're taking part in these
"red flag" activities the government is labeling potential
"domestic terrorist warnings".
3. Safeguard Your Public
Projection
As invasive as the government's new age of technology can be, your
biggest threat to your freedom isn't from Big Brother...
... your biggest threat is your
tattle-tale NEIGHBOR!
The watchful eye of the government can't be everywhere so they've
enlisted the help of our own citizens - turning us against each other with the "See
Something - Say Something" program that literally
REWARDS people for turning in "suspicious activity".
Take a look at your home... your vehicle... even the way you dress...
and honestly admit if you come off as an "gun nut" to others.
Don't brag about
your gun collection... how great you are at reloading your own bullets... or
how much ammo you have stocked away.
Being labeled as an "extremist" is - in my
opinion - is one of the biggest threats we face in our role as "new world
patriots" - a new class of "Minute Man" (and woman) charged with
the role of protecting our rights.
It starts with watching your own behind... and avoid
being the "red flag" on your block.
Start by reading my free report, "The
Death Of Freedom" where I share the steps you need to
take NOW to protect your privacy and safeguard your rights.
I go into deep detail about what this is and how to protect yourself in
this free guide, "The Death Of Freedom: 7 Keys To Survive The Coming Police
State"
Jeff Anderson
Editor
MCS Magazine
Yours for another revolution,
Bruce ‘the Poor Man’
Additional
Resources
The Anatomy of a Breakdown
The Prepper’s Blueprint: The Step-By-Step Guide To Help You Through Any Disaster
Prepper’s Home Defense: Security Strategies to Protect Your Family by Any Means Necessary
Contact! A Tactical Manual for Post Collapse Survival
Arm Up System-Defense Without Regulation
PM’s Guide to Home Defense
PM’s Guide to Home Defense
It is a crazy world out there with plenty of violence and everyone knows you that under most circumstances, police usually arrive after the fact. Your rights to defend yourself are often under attack, even for non-lethal self-defense tools…Includes 2 books and 3 bonus CD ROMS
http://www.bonanza.com/listings/Guide-to-Home-Defense-Arm-Up-System-Defense-W-out-Regulation-Bonuses/370808566
{Note:
We also offer a Three Set CD-ROM-only version at a lesser price for
those with limited budgets]
…Also>Check this package out,
an incredible deal, filled with how-to DVDs, CDs and instructional manuals
[last one available]
Emergency “Save Your Ass” DVDs/CD,
Reports Pkg+Bonuses for Preparing/Survival
Support our efforts by
shopping my storefront…
A Smoking Frog Feature, Shallow Planet Production
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