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Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Black Swan Events That Could Trigger [Very] Uncertain Times

Poor Man Survival

Self Reliance tools for independent minded people…

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A Digest of Urban Survival Resources


Black Swan Events That Could Trigger [Very] Uncertain Times

   There is still a war being waged against mainstreet and the little guy against cash and the so-called free market [which to the casual observer still looks fine].  Government bureaucrats and banking interests aim to replace paper cash with digital cash.  The head of Visa recently offered a “Cashless Challenge” $10k reward to merchants who stopped accepting cash…one motive is to make all economic transactions trackable and taxable.

Crypto-currencies have been in the news a lot recently, especially Bitcoin with JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon bashing it completely while on the other hand, some in government are talking about creating a government-backed Crypto currency to replace its fiat money in our era of digital money.

Even China recently took a shot at the U.S. petrodollar by paying for imported Arab oil with yuan [petroyuan] convertible into gold, remarkable as Chinese demand for imported oil outpaces American demand. 

Anti-citizen pro-globalist economist Ken Rogoff, formerly of the International Monetary Fund, recently argued in the Wall Street Journal for eliminating $50 and $100 bills in order for the Fed to implement negative nominal interest rates more effectively in the absence of these large bills…

We’re likely living in the most uncertain times of the past 225 years.

Many are predicting widespread uncertainty and potential “Black Swan” paradigm-shifting events in our near future.  These events are high profile, hard to predict, rare occurrences beyond the norm.  We’ve already seen several including the election of political maverick Donald Trump, Brexit and 9/11.

If you follow events in Europe it is likely that [if you believe as I do] we’re seeing a reemergence of Germany as its leading power, possibly joining forces with France to fill the vacuum being left by the United States.  Japan will be re-assuming a much more aggressive military buildup, including the possibility of nuclear weapons in light of N. Korea and China aggression not seen since its conquest at the end of WWII.

We’ve witnessed political and economic earthquakes throughout the world during the past 25 years including a strong increase of radical Islam.

We’ve seen a rise in the police state in the United States and a reduction of its Bill of Rights protections and complete elimination of privacy where the NSA now routinely spies on all citizens.  In fact, the U.S. has dramatically dropped to 13th place in terms of free enterprise and its favored nation status for freedom…even Singapore ranks above us!

Under the presidency of Obama more people became dependent on welfare than at any other time in history.

In the Near Future…

·         The State of IL will likely go bankrupt [a first for any state] due to its mismanagement of public worker pension funds.  Despite raising taxes and issuing IOUs for tax refunds and stopping all major road repairs, IL cannot pay its bills…years of Democratic ‘leadership’ have ruined the state and cities such as Chicago.  The state cannot even afford to pay its lottery winners or feed its prisoners – it has $251 billion in unfunded liabilities and $130 billion in pension debt alone!  Plenty of other states will be lining up right behind IL!

·         Massive Pension Crisis on the Horizon-While corporations dumped private sector pensions faster than dirty diapers, governments at all levels promised massive pension and health benefits to retirees and most will not be able to deliver…not when you have 10,000 baby boomers retiring per day!  States failed to contribute enough cash to their fund obligations and spent away like there was no tomorrow…the unfunded liabilities are too big to overcome and tax revenues are falling since decent paying jobs are falling too.  Nearly 70 years of financial malfeasance is coming home to roost.  Only a handful of states managed their pension funds well.

·         Overregulation is killing our ability to create jobs.  No president in history created more job-killing regulation than former president Obama…he almost single handedly killed of the coal industry, the lead industry and others.  The U.S. is now the most heavily regulated nation on earth and it discourages firms from setting up shop here which is why so many leave this country to start up in Mexico and elsewhere [even the Oreo cookie plant closed and went to Mexico killing 400 U.S. jobs…yet overweight citizens here were oblivious to this fact and continued buying truckloads of the calorie laden sweet].  At least President Trump is trying, despite the obstructionists in his party and in the opposition, to stop the job crushing regulation…

Here are a few other recent thoughts about the economy…

There are many obvious signs point to a gigantic financial bubble.

The prices of cryptocurrencies are soaring... Stocks are trading at record levels... Corporate bonds are paying record-low yields... Art is selling for $450 million... Consumer debt is at a new all-time high less than a decade after the biggest consumer-lending collapse in 50 years.

What's powering this bubble?

It's sovereign debt. Major governments around the world have gone mad with debt.

For a period of almost 20 years – between 1979 and 1998 – the 10-year average growth rate in U.S. federal debt was more than 100%. That first big "spurt" of U.S. debt growth peaked in 1991 (with a 10-year increase in federal debt of 228%) that saw total federal debt per person in the U.S. grow from $3,700 to $20,000 by 1998.

 The period between the early 1980s and the 1990s was generally fantastic for the stock market and for investors. At the beginning of a massive credit boom, everything seems great. That's because when credit growth far exceeds savings, it allows an economy to consume far more than it's producing….Consider:

 Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett originally thought that the coming correction would come a bit sooner, [so did I] but now he is warning of a “flash crash” during the first half of 2018

Having predicted back in July that the “most dangerous moment for markets will come in 3 or 4 months“, i.e., now, BofA’s Michael Hartnett was – in retrospect – wrong (unless of course the S&P plunges in the next few days). However, having stuck to his underlying logic – which was as sound then as it is now – Hartnett has not given up on his “bad cop” forecast (not to be mistaken with the S&P target to be unveiled shortly by BofA’s equity team and which will probably be around 2,800), and in a note released overnight, the Chief Investment Strategist not only once again dares to time his market peak forecast, which he now thinks will take place in the first half of 2018, but goes so far as to predict that there will be a flash crash “a la 1987/1994/1998” in just a few months.

Just so that there is no confusion, let me give you his exact quote

“A flash crash (à la ’87/’94/’98) in H1 2018 seems quite likely, in our view, as the major sedative of volatility, the central banks, start to withdraw liquidity.”

Bill Blain believes that the coming crash will actually originate in the bond market

The 2008 crisis, which was about consumer debt, was triggered by mortgages. We still have consumer debt crisis problems ahead, warns Blain, adding the next financial crisis is likely to be in corporate debt.

“More immediately, the realization a crisis is coming feels very similar to June 2007 when the first mortgage-backed funds in the US started to wobble.” He said it explains why “we’re seeing the highly levered sector of the junk bond markets struggle, and companies correlated to struggling highly levered consumers (such as health and telecoms) also in trouble.”

Stock markets don’t matter, according to the strategist. “The truth is in bond markets. And that’s where I’m looking for the dam to break. The great crash of 2018 is going to start in the deeper, darker depths of the credit market,” he said.

There are 20 different major retail chains that have closed at least 50 stores so far this year.  The following numbers originally come from Fox Business

1. Abercrombie & Fitch: 60 stores
2. Aerosoles: 88 stores
3. American Apparel: 110 stores
4. BCBG: 118 stores
5. Bebe: 168 stores
6. The Children’s Place: hundreds of stores to be closed by 2020
7. CVS: 70 stores
8. Guess: 60 stores
9. Gymboree: 350 stores
10. HHgregg: 220 stores
11. J.Crew: 50 stores
12. JC Penney: 138 stores
13. The Limited: 250 stores
14. Macy’s: 68 stores
15. Michael Kors: 125 stores
16. Payless: 800 stores
17. RadioShack: more than 1,000 stores
18. Rue21: up to 400 stores
19. Sears/Kmart: more than 300 stores
20. Wet Seal: 171 stores

If the U.S. economy was really doing well, then why are all of these major retailers closing down locations?

Of course the truth is that the economy is not doing well.  The U.S. economy has not grown by at least 3 percent in a single year since the middle of the Bush administration, and it isn’t going to happen this year either.  Overall, the U.S. economy has grown by an average of just 1.33 percent over the last 10 years, and meanwhile U.S. stock prices are up about 250 percent since the end of the last recession.  The stock market has become completely and utterly disconnected from economic reality, and yet many Americans still believe that it is an accurate barometer for the health of the economy.


   My recommendations include:

·         Diversify your sources of liquid cash.  Hold a paper stash of $100, $50 & $20s

·         Hold some precious metals including gold, silver, pre-1964 coins

·         Consider having a crypto-currency wallet

·         Consider holding foreign currency such as Swiss Francs or Canadian paper cash

   The way I see it Leftists are trying to make America fall, and a new post-American one world order.  They and their lame stream media [CNN, MSNBC, NBCUniversal, Hollywood, Global Citizen, etc.] are trying every smear tactic in the book [as I’ve reported since Jan. 2017] to bring Trump down including filing meaningless, obstructionist articles of impeachment articles against him all in an effort to destroy traditional America and to reinforce anti-traditionalist un-values.

As a prudent adult you probably have fire insurance on your home, collision insurance on your car and perhaps even health and life insurance.  This is because you know life is risky.  Trusting Big Government or Wall Street is risky too.  You should mitigate those external risks wherever possible.  My philosophy is simple.  Although you cannot prepare for everything life throws at you, it is important to GET STARTED. Take the first step, become the Boy or Girl Scout you once were [or should have been].  Make the changes needed to prepare even if they are baby steps to become self-reliant, to be RESILIENT.

You’ll find plenty of FREE resources below to get you started on your path to protect you and your family starting today.

[Note:  Suggested Reading:  The Crash Course by Chris Martenson – available on eBay, Amazon]


Ultimate Readiness Checklist! Click the link below to access your checklist:

Download the Checklist Here!

How to Survive the War on the Middle Class

14 of the best reports I’ve assembled on protecting your freedom…Here is the download link.


15 Ways Your Family Can Save Money This Holiday Season
If you try these tips, your family just might end the year with more money in the bank, a spirit of gratitude, and learn to enjoy the beauty of the season without spending any money.


Related posts:


A Final Note…

Contributors and subscribers enable the Poor Man Survivor to post 150+ free essays annually. It is for this reason they are Heroes and Heroines of New Media. Without your financial support, the free content would disappear for the simple reason that I cannot keep body and soul together on my meager book sales & ecommerce alone.


Improve your brain & prevent Alzheimer’s

   Neuroscientists have pinpointed a few simple lifestyle changes which can protect your brain from Alzheimer’s and other diseases…

·         Stroll in the sun.  Walking outdoors for 10 minutes a day year-round is the top way to reduce the risk of Alzheimer’s as exercise increases blood flow to the brain and when combined with sunlight it boosts the benefit by ensuring you have plenty of vitamin D in your system.

·         Challenge neurons.  Study after study shows that keeping your neurons active is another essential strategy for keeping your brain healthy for life.  Solving puzzles or crosswords fit the bill as does taking a dance class or painting course.  Reading books is another positive way to keep your brain active.

·         Toast to your health.  Enjoying 1-1/2 glasses of red wine each day is another good way to help keep your mind sharp for folks over 65.  Resveratrol reduces inflammation in the brain which can slow cognitive decline in patients…grape juice will work too.


>>Want to improve your brain?  Learn how here:


You Have a 16-Cylinder Brain-Learn How to Use it & Re-Awaken the Genius Inside You!


I know everyone is short on time in this hectic world so I’ve kept this PDF short and to the point with links to expert how-to articles and guides including:


·         How to Increase Your Intelligence

·         6 Step Brain Exercise Steve Jobs Used to Boost Creativity

·         6 Simple Habits to Boost Your Intelligence

·         The Best Vitamins to Increase Brain Function

·         How a Harvard Brain Specialist Keeps Her Brain Healthy

·         A Review of the Top 10 Brain [Limitless] Pills

·         How to Protect Your Cognitive Function



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Larry said...

Few people are paying attention, too busy going into debt buying crap they'll sell in next summers' garage sale.

Samuel said...

Most folks have their head buried in the sand which is why politicians can so easily fool the idiots...

Shawn said...

We do indeed live in very uncertain times. Best to hunker down laddie.