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Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Dying retail: Investment strategy 'checklist'

Poor Man Survival

Self Reliance tools for independent minded people…

www.poormansurvivor.net

ISSN 2161-5543

A Digest of Urban Survival Resources

Dying retail: Investment strategy 'checklist'

Retail as we have long known it is dying.

For investors, a portfolio shuffle may be in order.

The department store ruled our shopping experience since the late 18th century when it first appeared in London.

Up until then, consumers had to visit a variety of separate establishments to do their shopping — the shoemaker, the haberdasher, the milliner, the dressmaker, etc. It could be time-consuming and physically demanding.

The convenience of having all the shops under one roof and one management caught on quickly and grew rapidly into the department stores and malls of today.

The department store was born of the Industrial Revolution, which created vast new wealth and a new consumer market — the middle class — which had more money to spend and a desire to enjoy a better standard of life. The department store fulfilled those desires. The rise of the shopping mall anchored by one or more big department stores accelerated the suburban migration from the central city.

I well remember the old Sears & Roebuck, which was the icon of consumerism in America. It was an exciting adventure for many, visiting the store downtown, smelling the wonderful aromas of new clothes with a hint of sweet fragrance drifting over from the perfume counter and marveling at all the amazing goodies there.

And for the times in between visits to the store, there was the Sears & Roebuck catalog filled with enticing treasures that could be ordered by mail and delivered right to your door. The catalog embodied the American Dream as manifested in consumer goods. (In rural areas, it also often served a useful purpose in outdoor johns.)

Today there are only 41 Sears retail stores operating in the United States with 11 of those in California.

The list of large retailer brands closing stores (or that have already closed some) runs long and is stretching longer. Bath & Body Works, Macy's, Walmart, and Big Lots are among the chains shutting down stores. Bed Bath & Beyond is planning to close 416 locations.

JoAnn Fabrics, Party City and Rite aid will all probably be gone by the end of the year. Yes, strip malls are still being built, and there is an inordinate number of mattress stores on seemingly every corner... but despite that, big retailers are an animal that seems to be going extinct.

So what exposure should the average investor have?

Change of habits

The reasons for the decline of the big retailers are complex. The knee-jerk analysis holds that it's Amazon's fault. It's true that consumers love the convenience of point-and-click shopping online, and e-commerce is stealing a huge share of the retail market. But that's an overly simplistic answer. You can't try on a pair of pants at Amazon to see if they fit or look in a mirror to see if the color of a blouse complements your complexion.

Besides, some brick-and-mortar retailers already offer e-commerce "omni-channel" shopping where customers can buy online and pick up the items in the store, or encourage "showrooming" where customers can try clothes on in the store, then buy them online. Department stores now derive 15 percent to 25 percent of their sales online.

Part of the problem for the big retailers is a change in consumer shopping habits. People spend more on technology these days and have less to spend on clothes. The shopping mall culture is fading as young people who used to "hang out" at the mall now do so in social media. Discounts stores like TJ Maxx take a bite from the traditional retailers, who are themselves engaged in a "race to the bottom" to offer cut-rate promotional prices every day instead of just for special sales events, thus cutting into profits.

The big box itself turns off shoppers who have less patience with roaming around acres of retail space to find what they're looking for when they can pop online without moving from their sofa to buy the merchandise. The big department stores also tend to carry much the same merchandise — not just the same type of goods but even the same brands. According to consultancy AlixPartners, traditional middle-of-the-road department stores have a 40 percent merchandise overlap — meaning they carry the same stuff.

Local department stores no longer differentiate by offering goods appealing specifically to consumers in their community because consolidation of the stores has centralized merchandising management, resulting in "management by spreadsheet" without regard to localized preferences.

Then there's the fact that the little restaurants of the shopping mall food courts discovered they could do better business as "food trucks" and not bother with paying rent or having furniture. The smaller shops of the malls found they could move into lower-rent strip malls. Chain retailers flooded the markets with thousands of tons of consumer goods that thrift stores sell used and, therefore, no one needs to go get this stuff from the chain retailers anymore.

In a word, what is happening is a free market is coming into existence right under everyone's noses and few see it.

The economy is not tanking. It is changing. And to some people, it will look like it is collapsing. And it is — for them. For them, and the people that rely upon them, it will be a disaster and they'll lose these figments of their imaginations they call "fortunes." But the wealth does not just disappear. It changes forms.

Reinvest in retail?

Investors have followed shoppers out the door. But whether you prefer the real department store shopping experience or the virtual online experience, I suggest you take a careful look at your investment portfolio to see if adjustments are needed with regard to retail stocks.

That's not to say you should automatically dump all retail stocks. But you certainly want to look at those old standbys you've held forever and do some housecleaning. It's a stock-picker market in retail stocks, and passive buy-and-hold strategies could cost you.

Retailers in home improvement, like Home Depot and Lowe's, that have strong performance, are not growth stocks any longer, yet are at decent valuations are equities to look into. You'll want to look at the big online retailers like Amazon, of course, but also the infrastructure companies that allow online shopping payments, for example, like Shopify, or shipping and logistics companies. These are just ideas to consider, not recommendations. We do not run a trading service, and we do not know your specific investment needs and goals.

Still, you can evaluate your own risk tolerance and investment desires with the advice of tech and consumer goods specialist Leo Sun, writing for The Motley Fool, who offered his eight-point checklist for investing in retail stocks:

1. How do its comparable-store sales measure up?

2. How many stores is the retailer opening and closing?

3. Does it have a meaningful e-commerce presence?

4. Are inventories rising too quickly?

5. Are gross margins holding steady as revenue rises?

6. Have you visited the stores?

7. Do you understand the competition?

8. Is the stock expensive relative to its industry peers?

There's still money to be made in retail stocks, but you'll need to be conscientious about doing your homework.

Yours for the truth,

Bob Livingston
Editor, The Bob Livingston Letter^®

NOTE: I grew up as a ‘mall rat.’ Inside shopping centers were a dream for us kids especially during winter months. Our 1^st mall had a bowling alley/pinball & pool tables in its basement. As I ready this piece for post I read of big layoffs at Amazon, Facebook & more than 220 Brger Kings in MI are closing…

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Plenty of attention is given to the things you should do when disaster strikes. However, knowing what not to do can be just as important for your survival. In this list, you’ll find 13 things that you should avoid doing at all costs when disaster strikes.

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If disaster strikes, take a deep breath, stick to your plan, and do your best to stay calm...

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You chose a location that gets plenty of sunshine. You purchased the best quality seeds and starter plants. You followed organic measures for pest control. You monitored rainfall and watering carefully, even installing a drip irrigation system.

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As any experienced gardener knows, there could be a myriad of reasons for a poor harvest. But one area to closely examine is the condition of your soil. Healthy plants require healthy soil. This article examines nine ways to keep your garden soil healthy year after year...

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Container Gardening 101: Everything You Need to Get Started

Container gardening is a great way to bring a bit of nature into your home. Whether you have an apartment balcony or a small backyard, container gardens are easy to set up and maintain.

Plus, having your own homegrown fruits, vegetables, and herbs can save you money and help you be more prepared and self-sufficient in the long run.

But before you start planting your first garden, it’s important to learn the basics. Read on for our beginner’s guide to container gardening...

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A Smoking Frog Feature, Shallow Planet Production

Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Turning less into more

Poor Man Survival

Self Reliance tools for independent minded people…

www.poormansurvivor.net

ISSN 2161-5543

A Digest of Urban Survival Resources

How to Turn “Less” into Everything You Need

By Daisy Luther

The Organic Prepper

Imagine a simple dinner made from a potato that has just been dug out of the earth. You have fresh butter and fresh sour cream, made over the last week. You don’t have much in the way of exotic spices, just a bit of locally smoked paprika, some sea salt, and some black pepper. You don’t have fancy air fryers, 947 different cooking vessels, or gadgets to cut it into fancy shapes.

You have your potato, some olive oil, some tin foil, and your oven.

You bake your fist-sized potato after slathering it in fragrant, dark-gold olive oil (plus a couple of extra ones for future meals.) You cut it open, slather it with the fresh, yellow butter, and season it with your salt, pepper, and paprika. Add a dollop of sour cream, then sit down at your table. You’ve spent about 50 cents total on this, or perhaps you grew every single bite yourself.

The potato is tender, flaky, and earthy, delicately flavored with butter, filling your tastebuds. The skin is crisp. The sour cream topping is a cool, delicious contrast. The flavors imparted by the simple seasonings are delicate, yet rich at the same time.

This is what happens when you say, “I had a delicious, fresh potato loaded with delicious things” instead of “I only had a potato for dinner.”

Lessons from living differently

As many of you know, I’ve taken off to spend some time in Europe, and things are a lot different here. I’m here for a few months, on a temporary basis, to do some writing. But while I’ve been here, I think that there are some lessons we can take away from this that may help us prepare for the economic crisis that looms over us.

As most of you know, Greece suffered its own economic collapse in 2009 that worsened over the course of the next five years or so. (I wrote about it here.) It was a terrible time here, but gradually, the country recovered to some degree. However, people still don’t really make enough money to survive easily in the economy, taxes are exorbitant, and the infrastructure has become badly degraded. Because of the economic crisis, things are less “advanced” here than they are in the US. There’s less dependence on technology, a fact that is in unison welcome (less surveillance) and frustrating (you can’t do everything online here.)

But there are some things that we can use to help us through hard times. No, I’m not saying that Greece is “better” than the US – I’ll always be an American, no matter how far I might wander. I’m just saying that people are people, no matter where in the world you are. And the way others have adapted can sometimes help us find our way.

People here have less than people in the United States, but many of them have turned “less” into everything they need to be healthy, happy, and content.

Local economies

First of all, you see lots of local economies. I am in Athens, a large city. When I say “local” I am referring to my neighborhood. Each neighborhood seems to be built around various circles with a small park in the center and businesses surrounding it. Just up the road from me, I can find all sorts of specialty stores: a fruit stand, a vegetable stand, a butcher shop, a dairy store, a bakery (for bread and savory goods), a pastry shop (for desserts), and a store that focuses on dried goods like beans, pasta, rice, and seasonings.

The people running the shops are quite proud of the origins of the food they sell. One man tells me of the farm his uncle owns, where his vegetables are grown. “My uncle grows things; differently, he touches each plant himself,” he confides. Each vendor wants you to know why their product is so much better than anything else that you’ll find. There’s a certain pride in this, and everything you purchase is of the utmost quality. After a few weeks of returning to the same shops and seeing the same people, you begin to build a relationship and a rapport. A bevy of shopkeepers enthusiastically cheer on my attempts at learning their language, correcting me, and having me say the word back properly.

But it’s not only that.

Every week there’s also something called a laiki, where farmers from the outlying areas come into town and pop up their orange tents selling their current harvest. These happen all over the city, and each neighborhood has a different day on which their laiki occurs. I’ve gotten delightful fresh goods here, and it’s absolutely incredible food. The price is mind-blowing. I handed a two-Euro coin (about $2.12 USD) to a man standing behind a mountain of fresh potatoes the other day and ended up with almost more than I could carry home. I got olive oil decanted into a container that looks like a plastic water bottle. I have honey from a farm that grows thyme. If it grows from the earth and is in season, you can find it there.

People here tend to pay cash because the taxes are so extortionate. They build relationships. They scoff at the chain grocery stores and their pale offerings in comparison to the rich, fresh goodness you can get on your street.

Perhaps this is something we could all look for. Maybe we could find farmers and vendors who take pride in their offerings because they’ve seen it through from start to finish. Perhaps we could go back to the basics, the things that don’t come from packages, and buying from people, not corporations.

Thrift as a way of life

Ever since the collapse (and perhaps before, I never visited previously) thrift is a way of life. Here, you don’t always have hot water. You have to turn your water heater on about 20 minutes before you need it. This saves on electricity because you’re only heating up the water for 20 minutes a day. If you’re careful, enough water will remain in the tank for you to wash your dishes and have at least warmish water for handwashing during the rest of the day.

Nobody has dryers and every street you walk down has laundry on lines flying like flags from apartment balconies. There’s no HOA nonsense here. Every balcony is loaded with laundry, tomato plants, and herbs. Rooftops have solar panels and water tanks. Electricity is used in the smallest amounts possible at all times.

Part of this is that the price here has skyrocketed. Now, it’s all relative. I was pleasantly surprised when my first electric bill was just 43 Euros ($46.50 USD), but if I only made 800-1000 a month, the typical wage for a Greek, that would be pretty devastating.

If you were to leave your water heater on all day or your heat or air conditioner on while you stepped out, locals would look at you as though you’d completely lost your mind.

Small pleasures

One of the major guilty pleasures here is having coffee. Greeks will sit outdoors at one of the many cafes here and sip coffee as a social event, a break from their workday, or on a date. Instead of dropping $10 on dinner or lunch, or $30 on drinks at a bar, the social outing here is a $2 latte. And what’s more, coffee is to be savored, sitting in one place. You don’t get up and walk around with your coffee. You certainly don’t drive through to get it. You sit in a chair, at a table, like a civilized person. It’s an entire ceremony.

A beautiful day might be spent on a park bench, watching your children at a playground or reading a book. There’s a park nearby loaded with orange trees. You can smell the faint whiff of citrus in the air, and benches are everywhere, placed to take in the views.

Walking is not just transportation – it’s a joy. You walk wherever you can because a) traffic is a nightmare, and b) parking is a nightmare. But it’s not a grudging thing – there are lovely shop windows to peruse, beautiful balconies dripping with flowers and vegetables, plump stray cats hissing at you from low branches like the guardians of the trees, and the glorious sights of ancient Athens. Due to this, most people are fit and healthy and truly love being outdoors and walking to their destinations.

Simplicity

Then there’s the simplicity. The meal I described above is quite basic but the freshness of the ingredients made it delicious. I have no kitchen gadgets, few spices, and just one skillet and one baking sheet. It’s a far cry from my well-equipped kitchen back in North Carolina. But the meals I make here is savory and decadent because every single component is as fresh as possible.

Another common meal here is fascia gigantes which translates to “giant beans.” You can find these on nearly every menu of a restaurant boasting home-cooked food from Yiayia (Grandma) and it’s a frequent main dish in home kitchens. These are simply large white butterbeans cooked in tomato sauce. The sauce contains chunky tomatoes, good olive oil, garlic, onion, celery, and carrots and it’s seasoned with oregano, thyme, bay leaf, and the tiniest dash of cinnamon. It cooks all day long until the beans are tender and it’s served with fresh, crusty bread dipped in more olive oil or slathered in fresh butter. (Here’s a recipe that’s pretty close to what I’ve had.)

Meals at home are generally very simple but there’s tons of attention to detail and the best possible ingredients.

Life here isn’t a neverending binge-watch of Netflix or television. People sit outside and enjoy the weather. They talk to their neighbors. They go for coffee (as mentioned above) and the many parks and greenspaces are a testament to their love of nature. I love to sit in a park and read a book with the spring sunshine sparkling through the olive trees above me.

I rarely see people arguing about politics or yelling about anything other than the (stupid) way another person is driving, and it’s all forgotten within seconds, with no hard feelings. People watch the birds feeding in their gardens, and nearly everyone feeds the stray cats and offers them water on the hot days of summer.

No place is perfect, but our attitudes are everything.

Now, this may sound like an ode to Athens, and I suppose it is in a way. But the things I see here don’t have to be unique to a different part of the world. We could all focus on the simple perfection of that ideal dark red strawberry or the tenderness of the beans in our soup, or the fresh smell of the plants surrounding us as we wander through a place of nature, trying to identify the different fragrances and apply them to the proper flora.

We can focus on what we do have instead of what we don’t have. We can stop and look at the world around us and savor it. We can connect with other people and find things in common and a reason to laugh together.

I’m not naive. I know that we have deep problems and rifts that seem impossible to bridge in the United States. But if we start in our own neighborhoods to build those bridges and find some common ground, perhaps that could spread. Maybe we can make our own little corners of the world better just by appreciating them. It could take effort because we’re used to having so much more, but a conscious attempt to try, to take in every delicious, luxurious, decadent detail of a piece of fresh bread dripping with butter will make that bread the feast of kings.

As we scale back our lifestyles to manage this economic chaos we’re facing, we can take a few notes from the way others have done so. We can learn from them, and we can embrace the things that we’re left with. Who knows? It could turn out that your life actually becomes better once you get off the frantic hamster wheel.

Having less doesn’t have to be a bad thing. With the right appreciation and attention to detail, less can magically become everything that you need.

Reprinted with permission from The Organic Prepper.

The Best of Daisy Luther

SIDEBAR

Sell unwanted items. As you're cleaning, you're bound to come across items you no longer need or want. Consider selling them online or having a yard sale. This way, you can make some extra cash and declutter your home simultaneously. Try these sites for selling your stuff. Donate what doesn't sell.

Make your own cleaning solutions. Instead of buying expensive cleaning products, mix up your own cleaners using vinegar, baking soda and other ingredients you probably already have on hand. These products are often cheaper and can be just as effective. Start with these inexpensive cleaner recipes.

13 Scary Things That Happen When An Economy Collapses

In modern days, economic collapse is one of the most likely disasters that people all over the world must contend with. Even in an economic stronghold such as the United States, the possibility of economic collapse looms large.

In fact, many experts believe that the current economic downturn is just the beginning and that the severity of the covid depression is yet to be seen. And considering that the fundamental problems behind this economy still haven't been fixed, they are probably right.

Aside from the financial consequences, though, there are plenty of other scary things that follow in the wake of an economic collapse. Below, we’ll cover some of these frightening possibilities in order to highlight why it is so important to be prepared...

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I have two generators for an emergency. I have one gasoline and one propane. How much gasoline and propane should I store at my house?

-From Erik V.

Answer: I recommend having 30 days’ worth of propane and gas to run your generators.

Yet, I wouldn’t plan on running your entire house for 30 days but just your basic necessities to reduce the amount of fuel you need to store.

You can store both gas and propane in a shed in your backyard, just make sure you add the fuel stabilizer to the gas and only use premium gas.

Consider purchasing a solar Generator and/or a multi-fuel system which can operate from propane or gasoline.