Black Swan Events That Could Trigger [Very] Uncertain Times

Poor Man Survival

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Black Swan Events That Could Trigger [Very] Uncertain Times

   There is still a war being waged against mainstreet and the little guy against cash and the so-called free market [which to the casual observer still looks fine].  Government bureaucrats and banking interests aim to replace paper cash with digital cash.  The head of Visa recently offered a “Cashless Challenge” $10k reward to merchants who stopped accepting cash…one motive is to make all economic transactions trackable and taxable.

Crypto-currencies have been in the news a lot recently, especially Bitcoin with JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon bashing it completely while on the other hand, some in government are talking about creating a government-backed Crypto currency to replace its fiat money in our era of digital money.

Even China recently took a shot at the U.S. petrodollar by paying for imported Arab oil with yuan [petroyuan] convertible into gold, remarkable as Chinese demand for imported oil outpaces American demand. 

Anti-citizen pro-globalist economist Ken Rogoff, formerly of the International Monetary Fund, recently argued in the Wall Street Journal for eliminating $50 and $100 bills in order for the Fed to implement negative nominal interest rates more effectively in the absence of these large bills…

We’re likely living in the most uncertain times of the past 225 years.

Many are predicting widespread uncertainty and potential “Black Swan” paradigm-shifting events in our near future.  These events are high profile, hard to predict, rare occurrences beyond the norm.  We’ve already seen several including the election of political maverick Donald Trump, Brexit and 9/11.

If you follow events in Europe it is likely that [if you believe as I do] we’re seeing a reemergence of Germany as its leading power, possibly joining forces with France to fill the vacuum being left by the United States.  Japan will be re-assuming a much more aggressive military buildup, including the possibility of nuclear weapons in light of N. Korea and China aggression not seen since its conquest at the end of WWII.

We’ve witnessed political and economic earthquakes throughout the world during the past 25 years including a strong increase of radical Islam.

We’ve seen a rise in the police state in the United States and a reduction of its Bill of Rights protections and complete elimination of privacy where the NSA now routinely spies on all citizens.  In fact, the U.S. has dramatically dropped to 13^th place in terms of free enterprise and its favored nation status for freedom…even Singapore ranks above us!

Under the presidency of Obama more people became dependent on welfare than at any other time in history.

In the Near Future…

·         The State of IL will likely go bankrupt [a first for any state] due to its mismanagement of public worker pension funds.  Despite raising taxes and issuing IOUs for tax refunds and stopping all major road repairs, IL cannot pay its bills…years of Democratic ‘leadership’ have ruined the state and cities such as Chicago.  The state cannot even afford to pay its lottery winners or feed its prisoners – it has $251 billion in unfunded liabilities and $130 billion in pension debt alone!  Plenty of other states will be lining up right behind IL!

·         Massive Pension Crisis on the Horizon-While corporations dumped private sector pensions faster than dirty diapers, governments at all levels promised massive pension and health benefits to retirees and most will not be able to deliver…not when you have 10,000 baby boomers retiring per day!  States failed to contribute enough cash to their fund obligations and spent away like there was no tomorrow…the unfunded liabilities are too big to overcome and tax revenues are falling since decent paying jobs are falling too.  Nearly 70 years of financial malfeasance is coming home to roost.  Only a handful of states managed their pension funds well.

·         Overregulation is killing our ability to create jobs.  No president in history created more job-killing regulation than former president Obama…he almost single handedly killed of the coal industry, the lead industry and others.  The U.S. is now the most heavily regulated nation on earth and it discourages firms from setting up shop here which is why so many leave this country to start up in Mexico and elsewhere [even the Oreo cookie plant closed and went to Mexico killing 400 U.S. jobs…yet overweight citizens here were oblivious to this fact and continued buying truckloads of the calorie laden sweet].  At least President Trump is trying, despite the obstructionists in his party and in the opposition, to stop the job crushing regulation…

Here are a few other recent thoughts about the economy…

There are many obvious signs point to a gigantic financial bubble.

The prices of cryptocurrencies are soaring... Stocks are trading at record levels... Corporate bonds are paying record-low yields... Art is selling for $450 million... Consumer debt is at a new all-time high less than a decade after the biggest consumer-lending collapse in 50 years.

What's powering this bubble?

It's sovereign debt. Major governments around the world have gone mad with debt.

For a period of almost 20 years – between 1979 and 1998 – the 10-year average growth rate in U.S. federal debt was more than 100%. That first big "spurt" of U.S. debt growth peaked in 1991 (with a 10-year increase in federal debt of 228%) that saw total federal debt per person in the U.S. grow from $3,700 to $20,000 by 1998.

 The period between the early 1980s and the 1990s was generally fantastic for the stock market and for investors. At the beginning of a massive credit boom, everything seems great. That's because when credit growth far exceeds savings, it allows an economy to consume far more than it's producing….Consider:

 Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett originally thought that the coming correction would come a bit sooner, [so did I] but now he is warning of a “flash crash” during the first half of 2018…

Having predicted back in July that the “most dangerous moment for markets will come in 3 or 4 months“, i.e., now, BofA’s Michael Hartnett was – in retrospect – wrong (unless of course the S&P plunges in the next few days). However, having stuck to his underlying logic – which was as sound then as it is now – Hartnett has not given up on his “bad cop” forecast (not to be mistaken with the S&P target to be unveiled shortly by BofA’s equity team and which will probably be around 2,800), and in a note released overnight, the Chief Investment Strategist not only once again dares to time his market peak forecast, which he now thinks will take place in the first half of 2018, but goes so far as to predict that there will be a flash crash “a la 1987/1994/1998” in just a few months.

Just so that there is no confusion, let me give you his exact quote…

“A flash crash (à la ’87/’94/’98) in H1 2018 seems quite likely, in our view, as the major sedative of volatility, the central banks, start to withdraw liquidity.”

Bill Blain believes that the coming crash will actually originate in the bond market…

The 2008 crisis, which was about consumer debt, was triggered by mortgages. We still have consumer debt crisis problems ahead, warns Blain, adding the next financial crisis is likely to be in corporate debt.

“More immediately, the realization a crisis is coming feels very similar to June 2007 when the first mortgage-backed funds in the US started to wobble.” He said it explains why “we’re seeing the highly levered sector of the junk bond markets struggle, and companies correlated to struggling highly levered consumers (such as health and telecoms) also in trouble.”

Stock markets don’t matter, according to the strategist. “The truth is in bond markets. And that’s where I’m looking for the dam to break. The great crash of 2018 is going to start in the deeper, darker depths of the credit market,” he said.

There are 20 different major retail chains that have closed at least 50 stores so far this year.  The following numbers originally come from Fox Business…

1. Abercrombie & Fitch: 60 stores
2. Aerosoles: 88 stores
3. American Apparel: 110 stores
4. BCBG: 118 stores
5. Bebe: 168 stores
6. The Children’s Place: hundreds of stores to be closed by 2020
7. CVS: 70 stores
8. Guess: 60 stores
9. Gymboree: 350 stores
10. HHgregg: 220 stores
11. J.Crew: 50 stores
12. JC Penney: 138 stores
13. The Limited: 250 stores
14. Macy’s: 68 stores
15. Michael Kors: 125 stores
16. Payless: 800 stores
17. RadioShack: more than 1,000 stores
18. Rue21: up to 400 stores
19. Sears/Kmart: more than 300 stores
20. Wet Seal: 171 stores

If the U.S. economy was really doing well, then why are all of these major retailers closing down locations?

Of course the truth is that the economy is not doing well.  The U.S. economy has not grown by at least 3 percent in a single year since the middle of the Bush administration, and it isn’t going to happen this year either.  Overall, the U.S. economy has grown by an average of just 1.33 percent over the last 10 years, and meanwhile U.S. stock prices are up about 250 percent since the end of the last recession.  The stock market has become completely and utterly disconnected from economic reality, and yet many Americans still believe that it is an accurate barometer for the health of the economy.

 

   My recommendations include:

·         Diversify your sources of liquid cash.  Hold a paper stash of $100, $50 & $20s

·         Hold some precious metals including gold, silver, pre-1964 coins

·         Consider having a crypto-currency wallet

·         Consider holding foreign currency such as Swiss Francs or Canadian paper cash

   The way I see it Leftists are trying to make America fall, and a new post-American one world order.  They and their lame stream media [CNN, MSNBC, NBCUniversal, Hollywood, Global Citizen, etc.] are trying every smear tactic in the book [as I’ve reported since Jan. 2017] to bring Trump down including filing meaningless, obstructionist articles of impeachment articles against him all in an effort to destroy traditional America and to reinforce anti-traditionalist un-values.

As a prudent adult you probably have fire insurance on your home, collision insurance on your car and perhaps even health and life insurance.  This is because you know life is risky.  Trusting Big Government or Wall Street is risky too.  You should mitigate those external risks wherever possible.  My philosophy is simple.  Although you cannot prepare for everything life throws at you, it is important to GET STARTED. Take the first step, become the Boy or Girl Scout you once were [or should have been].  Make the changes needed to prepare even if they are baby steps to become self-reliant, to be RESILIENT.

You’ll find plenty of FREE resources below to get you started on your path to protect you and your family starting today.

[Note:  Suggested Reading:  The Crash Course by Chris Martenson – available on eBay, Amazon]

 

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How to Survive the War on the Middle Class

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15 Ways Your Family Can Save Money This Holiday Season
If you try these tips, your family just might end the year with more money in the bank, a spirit of gratitude, and learn to enjoy the beauty of the season without spending any money.

 

Related posts:

1.      6 Easy Ways To Make Money For Prepping

2.      The Survival Tool Burden – A Big Prepping Problem

3.      The Lazy Prepper’s Way To Sharpen A Knife

 

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Improve your brain & prevent Alzheimer’s

   Neuroscientists have pinpointed a few simple lifestyle changes which can protect your brain from Alzheimer’s and other diseases…

·         Stroll in the sun.  Walking outdoors for 10 minutes a day year-round is the top way to reduce the risk of Alzheimer’s as exercise increases blood flow to the brain and when combined with sunlight it boosts the benefit by ensuring you have plenty of vitamin D in your system.

·         Challenge neurons.  Study after study shows that keeping your neurons active is another essential strategy for keeping your brain healthy for life.  Solving puzzles or crosswords fit the bill as does taking a dance class or painting course.  Reading books is another positive way to keep your brain active.

·         Toast to your health.  Enjoying 1-1/2 glasses of red wine each day is another good way to help keep your mind sharp for folks over 65.  Resveratrol reduces inflammation in the brain which can slow cognitive decline in patients…grape juice will work too.

 

>>Want to improve your brain?  Learn how here:

 

You Have a 16-Cylinder Brain-Learn How to Use it & Re-Awaken the Genius Inside You!

 

I know everyone is short on time in this hectic world so I’ve kept this PDF short and to the point with links to expert how-to articles and guides including:

 

·         How to Increase Your Intelligence

·         6 Step Brain Exercise Steve Jobs Used to Boost Creativity

·         6 Simple Habits to Boost Your Intelligence

·         The Best Vitamins to Increase Brain Function

·         How a Harvard Brain Specialist Keeps Her Brain Healthy

·         A Review of the Top 10 Brain [Limitless] Pills

·         How to Protect Your Cognitive Function

 

http://www.bonanza.com/listings/You-Have-a-16-Cylinder-Brain-Learn-How-to-Use-it-Re-Awaken-the-Genius-Inside/423194447

 

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5 Threats to your Economic Freedom

Poor Man Survival

Self Reliance tools for independent minded people…

 

www.PoorManSurvival.com

 

ISSN 2161-5543

A Digest of Urban Survival Resources

                           The Middle Class needs a new economic bill of rights to protect itself from the Washington-Wall Street Cartel.  >>The Poor Man

 

The size of the U.S. budget deficit is falling… as politicians are too eager to remind us these days. After deficits topping $1 trillion every year from 2009–2012, the 2014 shortfall might well clock in below $500 billion-no matter…

The collapse has already started. With 105 nations running from the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, there is nothing left to back up the dollar. Our currency will hyper-inflate and America’s economy will make the crash of the Weimar Republic look like a picnic.

 

Our own government is the biggest threat to economic freedom…

 

From a micro perspective, the personal economic health of America is abysmal. -

U.S. Census Bureau, more than 146 million Americans are either “poor” or “low income”. Stunningly, more than 100 million Americans are enrolled in at least one welfare program run by the federal government, not including the massive entitlement programs of Social Security or Medicare. The number of people on food stamps has grown to 47.79 million Americans. In 2008, when Obama first took office, only 32 million Americans were on food stamps. Approximately, 20.2 million Americans spend more than half of their incomes on housing, which represents a 46% increase from 2001. Parents under the age of 30 experience poverty rates consisting of 37 percent. The number of Americans living in poverty has grown to one out of every six US citizens.

 

 

5 Threats to Your Economic Freedom

By Geoffrey Pike

Having a free economy means having strong property rights, a generally stable form of money, and few government regulations.

Where there is more economic freedom, there is usually more prosperity. There is less poverty and a higher standard of living. When people are allowed to voluntarily trade and do business, it encourages savings and investment. It encourages entrepreneurism.

While there is always a risk in starting a business, the risk of government confiscation or interference is diminished in a society that generally respects property rights. An entrepreneur who is successful in a relatively free economy will get to reap the rewards of providing his goods and services.

In some countries, economic freedom outweighs civil liberties. For example, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates are two of the freest places on the planet, economically speaking. They are great places to find a job or do business — but they are not as good in terms of civil liberties and social freedoms.

On the other hand, some European countries are freer when it comes to civil liberties yet not as economically free — they're often considered welfare states.

With that said, there is no question that there is a relationship between economic freedom and liberty in general. It is no coincidence that North Korea is probably the most authoritarian country on Earth and also has almost nothing in the way of a free market. It is an extremely impoverished country.

The United States in the 19th century was perhaps the most economically free country in history (not counting the 1860s, which was a period of war).

This was one of the greatest periods of growth in history, too. It was also a time of great civil liberties in the respect that government, particularly the federal government, had little involvement in people’s lives.

 

"In the current political vocabulary, ‘need’ means wanting to get someone else’s money. 

‘Greed,’ which used to mean what “need” now means, has come to mean wanting to keep your own. 

‘Compassion’ means the politician’s willingness to arrange the transfer."

-- Joseph Sobran

 

Government Intervention and the Economy

Those who identify themselves as Republicans and conservatives (civilians, not politicians) tend to favor economic freedom, including lower taxes and less government regulation.

Unfortunately, many conservatives don’t care to pay a lot of attention to issues of civil liberties and foreign intervention — or worse, they cheer on big government when it comes to these things. There is something of a contradiction in thinking that the government is too incompetent to run our health care system and plan our economy yet is an efficient machine when it comes to fighting wars, stopping drug abuse, and keeping us safe from terrorists.

It must be stressed that economic freedom goes hand in hand with the general cause of liberty. It is rare that you have a government that will spy on you, control you, and intervene overseas, while also maintaining strong property rights and economic freedom at home.

And while this probably won’t come as a surprise, it takes a lot of money for a government to be active. Spying on people is expensive. Fighting a drug war is expensive. Regulating people’s behavior is expensive. Most of all, fighting foreign wars and occupying other countries is incredibly expensive, both in lives and money.

Fighting in a foreign war means buying and maintaining equipment. It means buying oil and gas to run the machinery. It means paying salaries and benefits to a large number of people. It means paying pensions and disability for injuries, both mental and physical. And this money has to come from somewhere.

It can either come from taxes or from inflation and debt. But even the latter scenario affects our economic freedom today. It is capital being diverted away from production and investment.

There is a misconception that debt is only a burden on future generations. In reality, it is a burden right now.

In other words, if you want a big government that is constantly fighting wars, and if you tolerate a big government when it comes to invading certain civil liberties, then you are probably not going to get a small government when it comes to taxes and regulations.

A Government as a Reflection of the People

Governments will typically expand and gain as much power as the populace will allow. In the long run, government is generally a reflection of the people. This isn’t to say that people deserve the government they get, but the government is generally limited by the consent of the people.

When Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980, he was seen as the pro-liberty candidate. In terms of government spending, he didn’t live up to his reputation, as spending increased quite a bit on his watch.

One area where Reagan was successful in implementing a pro-liberty agenda was in the realm of income tax rates. During his eight years in office, he managed to get the top tax rate reduced from a whopping 70% down to 28%. But how did he manage to get this through a Democrat-controlled Congress?

There were some hard-core leftists that supported (voted in favor of) the legislation to reduce tax rates. Their support was really a reflection of the people.

These Democrats in Congress were receiving thousands of phone calls a day telling them to support Reagan’s tax-cut plan. They had almost no choice but to oblige or risk losing their jobs.

In other words, because Reagan received the support of the American people on cutting marginal income tax rates, it happened. When the will of the people is strong enough, politicians will change with the wind.

Consent to Being Ruled

The point here is that if you concede your liberty on some issues, then don’t be surprised when it is all infringed upon. If you ask the government do something on your behalf, it is going to take that as a green light to do everything on your behalf.

 

Republican politicians say they want more economic freedom but insist on curtailing civil liberties. Democratic politicians say they want greater civil liberties but insist on taxing the rich and increasing welfare.

So what happens?

Both sides compromise-The Republicans support bigger government for welfare programs. Democrats support bigger government to curtail civil liberties.

 

If you ask for bigger government in one area, you are probably going to get it everywhere. If you consent to big government, you are going to get big government.

 

That is why I believe that even if your main goal is to increase economic freedom and capitalism, it is also important to be aware of government in every area of your life. This includes everything from the government fighting wars thousands of miles away to the seemingly little things that go on in your hometown that are endorsed by your city council.

 

This is why we recently launched a new service called Liberty Briefing. And as a member of Wealth Daily, you can get it free right here.

 

Plus, my colleague Jeff Siegel has also put together a new report called, “The 5 Greatest Threats to Your Liberty.” This report is also free, and you can get a copy by clicking this link.

 

 

Voters are fed up with Congress, worried about nation’s future

Most Americans view the country moving in the wrong direction and don’t see their financial futures getting better anytime soon, attitudes likely to make it harder for Democrats to do well this fall, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll. More…

 

 

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Lost in the rhetoric about the decline of the middle class is the reality of the decline. Nearly everyone is aware that the middle class is struggling, but few understand how the struggle plays out in everyday life.

How to Survive the…

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