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Thursday, April 23, 2015

The Copenhagen Window or Thinking in Terms of Probabilities about Your Future

Poor Man Survival

Self Reliance tools for independent minded people…


ISSN 2161-5543

A Digest of Urban Survival Resource

Glance into the world just as though time were gone: and everything crooked will become straight to you!   >Nietzsche





Think in terms of probabilities -- and not in terms of hard truths. Expect the unexpected.

Think about the concept of the Copenhagen Window

The interpretation is the notion that the future is nothing more than an expanding set of probabilities, time lines of possibility that continuously collapse into one reality as observances of measurements mad; kind of the standard interpretation of quantum mechanics.

This is also expressed in detail as Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.         

There is no crystal ball for predicting one outcome then proceeding on a single path.”

Rather, it’s best to adapt to new information as it comes. Stay nimble.

You have to think in terms of probabilities -- and not in terms of hard truths. Expect the unexpected…and with our political leaders, we can always anticipate the unexpected with one exception:  Always follow the money!  In Washington, nearly everything happens because of money, who gets it and who has it removed from their pocket.

For instance, when I review my various resources on the economy I look at what our Fed is doing, what China is doing, the price of precious metals and so on.  If gold suddenly falls or triples in price, I get concerned…does this indicate a crash, government crisis, international crisis or???

The Global financial system is unfathomably complex and most folks know nothing of how it works.  If they did, they would tremble in fear.

Earlier in the year a prestigious gathering of the International Monetary Fund held at the annual Davos Economic Forum issued a dire warning about America’s financial system, specifically in regard to the shadow banking system [I wrote about this extensively two years ago but few paid attention]. 

The Telegraph summarized it:  “Shadow banking now poses top risk to US stability…non-financial lending has reached $15 trillion since the collapse of a few years ago and is outside the control of authorities”

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen has said this about shadow banking, “We simply have to expect that when we draw regulatory boundaries and supervise intensely within them, that there is the prospect that activities will move outside those boundaries and we can do nothing.”

I suspect she was referring primarily to the derivative market, which are essentially unregulated, high-risk credit bets…the same crap which nearly collapsed the monetary system in 2008 after Clinton eliminated the Banking Act of 1933, which is also called the Glass-Steagall Act.

Currently, central bankers around the world are all fighting currency wars. In all major financial centers at once -- from Washington, D.C., to Moscow to Beijing.

I look at factors like inflation [not the BS stats provided by government agencies], social disorder [which are increasing in a nation of have-nots], the movement of government agencies in terms of how they create and enforce laws which bash the Bill of Rights, how law enforcement engages its citizens while arming themselves for civil war.

Are we ready for another major worldwide credit crunch?  Today, the entire global financial system resembles a colossal spiral of debt.  Just about all economic activity involves the flow of credit in some way, and so the only way to have “economic growth” is to introduce even more debt into the system.  When the system started to fail back in 2008, global authorities responded by pumping this debt spiral back up and getting it to spin even faster than ever.  If you can believe it, the total amount of global debt has risen by $35 trillion since the last crisis.  Unfortunately, any system based on debt is going to break down…simply a matter of when.

Consider that China has seen more debt growth than any other major industrialized nation since the last recession.  This debt growth has been so dramatic that it has gotten the attention of authorities all over the planet

Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany’s finance minister says that “debt levels in the global economy continue to give cause for concern.”

Singling out China in particular, Schaeuble noted that “debt has nearly quadrupled since 2007″, adding that it’s “growth appears to be built on debt, driven by a real estate boom and shadow banks.”  Sound familiar?

Poor earnings reports in the U.S. are starting to rattle investors…we just learned that GE lost 13.6 billion dollars in the first quarter…

One week following the announcement that it would dismantle most of its GE Capital financing operations to instead focus on its industrial roots, General Electric reported a first quarter loss of $13.6 billion.

The results were impacted by charges relating to the conglomerate’s strategic shift. A year ago GE reported a first quarter profit of $3 billion.

That is a lot of money.

How in the world does a company lose 13.6 billion dollars in a single quarter during an “economic recovery”?

Other big firms are reporting disappointing earnings numbers too

In earnings news, American Express Co. late Thursday said its results were hurt by the strong U.S. dollar, which reduced revenue booked in other countries. Chief Executive Kenneth Chenault reiterated the company’s forecast that 2015 earnings will be flat to modestly down year over year. Shares fell 4.6%.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. said its first-quarter loss widened as revenue slumped. The company said it was exiting its dense server systems business, effective immediately. Revenue and the loss excluding items missed expectations, pushing shares down 13%.

And just like we saw just before the financial crisis of 2008, Americans are increasingly having difficulty meeting their financial obligations.

For instance, the delinquency rate on student loans has reached a very frightening level

At this point, the American consumer is pretty well tapped out.  If you can believe it, 56 percent of all Americans have subprime credit today, and domestically we’ve seen the biggest spike in credit application rejections ever recorded.

From what I see, we are entering a place that offers no solutions and plenty of bad decisions from the political elite and the bankers which control them…

Interview with Canadian Billionaire Rick Rule - The Global Financial System Is Now A Confidence Game


Something the Poor Man has discussed often: A new country which is FREE - A drum roll please…

A Czech man has created a new country. He's calling it Liberland to celebrate the sort of liberty-based ideals championed by libertarians. But, his project is much more than just a libertarian enclave. Rather, it's a big step forward for freedom on Planet Earth.

Liberland is a new European country founded upon the principles of freedom, and that’s why I’ve applied for citizenship just three days after its founding.

Vit Jedlička is a member of the conservative Party of Free Citizens in the Czech Republic and is the self-appointed President of Liberland, which sits on unclaimed terra nullius territory between Serbia and Croatia. The 3 square miles is a place where taxes are optional and military does not exist.

Finally, a few other tools you might find of use…

The ONE Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results by Gary Keller and Jay Papasan: This book resonates with me as I attempt to simplify every aspect of my life

The Penny Hoarder: I met the founder of this site, Kyle Taylor, at a conference in Las Vegas. Kyle and his team produce some great content on saving money.

How to Declutter Your Mind and Unleash Your Willpower by Using “Bright-Line” Rules (James Clear): "A bright-line rule refers to a clearly defined rule or standard. It is a rule with clear interpretation and very little wiggle room. It establishes a bright line for what the rule is saying and what it is not saying."

I hope you found this issue thought provoking – Feel free to share your thoughts using the feedback box below.

Books, Art, Video – the saucy, the odd, the retro, even the practical…


A Shallow Planet Production


1 comment:

DAR said...

Thought provoking to say the least...something fewer humans do today