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Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Death & Rebirth, Fear & Recessions-Lessons to Protect Yourself

Poor Man Survival

Self Reliance tools for independent minded people…


ISSN 2161-5543

A Digest of Urban Survival Resources


Death & Rebirth, Fear & Recessions.

The true tragedy of apocalyptic times isn’t that old systems die.

The real tragedy is how many people hold onto them for dear life and, as a result, go down with them...And it would seem Democrats are drooling over the prospect of a recession to hurt Trump AND apparently with zero regard as to how it would affect citizens and business.

What’s far more interesting than death, after all, is the rebirth -- what new systems are creeping in to take the place of the Old Guard.

What’s far more fascinating than the gatekeeper getting crushed, in other words, is the question: In front of what gate was he guarding?

And indeed what opportunities a newly flung-open gate presents for any intrepid individual willing to step forward on the path yet unblazed.

Brace yourself while we insert a well-worn -- and, even worse, well-debunked -- cliche. 

In a speech in Indiana, JFK said:

“When written in Chinese, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters. One represents danger. And the other represents opportunity.”

JFK was both wrong and right.

Like General Tso’s chicken, this translation of “crisis” is uniquely an American blunder and strange to the Chinese homeland.

But… JFK was also right.

Every crisis does present itself with an opportunity for the individual to “get on the ground floor” of what’s coming down the pike… while all the Goliaths are doing little more than fighting to maintain power.

It’s for that reason we here at Laissez Faire strive to remain on the bleeding edge…

On the lookout for cracks in the concrete, yes…

But also for the flowers which tend to sprout from within them.

See no recession, hear no recession, speak no recession.

On the heels of an “inverted yield curve” last week — historically an omen of an approaching recession — the president says there’s no recession in sight.

“Just to remind you,” says our recovering investment banker Nomi Prins, “the yield curve is the difference between short- and long-term interest rates. Long-term rates are normally higher than short-term rates. When the two converge, it often means markets are anticipating low growth ahead. When the yield curve inverts, when long-term rates fall below short-term rates, it’s almost always a sign of looming recession, historically speaking.”


"I don't think we're having a recession,” he told reporters yesterday. “We're doing tremendously well, our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut and they're loaded up with money.”

Whatever. Really, what else is he supposed to say? As we mentioned earlier, this president finds himself in the strange position of praying the Federal Reserve can keep inflating the “big, fat, ugly bubble” he was denouncing on the campaign trail in 2016 — at least long enough to ensure his reelection in 2020.

And who knows? The Fed might get lucky and pull it off. Citizens are still traveling like crazy, buying over-priced coffee at Starbucks, spending big on sporting events and concerts…

But when his top economic adviser Larry Kudlow says the same thing? Yikes, batten down the hatches. From a New York Post story...

“I don’t see a recession at all,” Kudlow told fill-in host Dana Perino on Fox News Sunday.

Americans, he said, “should not be afraid of optimism,” saying the “Trump pro-growth program” is succeeding.

“What’s wrong with a little optimism?” Kudlow added.

Nothing, other than Kudlow’s appalling track record for economic prognostication — especially when it comes to the onset of recessions.

As a columnist and cable TV pundit in 2005, Kudlow denounced “all the bubbleheads” who said housing prices in hotspots like Vegas and Naples, Florida, were unsustainable. (That was the same year future Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said, “We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.” Good company, huh?)

But an even more damning quotation comes from December 2007: “The recession debate is over. It’s not gonna happen. Time to move on… The Bush boom is alive and well.”

It turned out December 2007 marked the “official” start of the worst recession in decades. Bonus points: Three months earlier, the Fed had embarked on cutting interest rates for the first time in years. Gee, what was it the Fed did less than a month ago? Hmmm…

One more, from July 2008: “The reality is a possible upturn in the housing trend, and at the very least we are getting a bottom.” Heh… the actual bottom, using the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index as a yardstick, didn’t come until February 2012

“The financial system is more highly levered today than it was prior to the last financial crisis,” says the aforementioned Nomi Prins — who’s doing nothing to make us feel better this morning.

Nomi’s been warning us about corporate debt since late last year. She’s back today with some updated numbers: “U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt is now about $10 trillion, or 48% of GDP. That’s in contrast to the $4.9 trillion in 2007 before the last financial crisis. But total corporate debt is actually far higher than that.

“When you add the debt of smaller firms and other businesses not listed on the stock exchanges, you’re looking at another $5.5 trillion or so. When you add it all up, that means, total corporate debt is about $15.5 trillion, or nearly 75% of GDP.”

The Federal Reserve is aware of this huge debt overhang. It’s just helpless to do anything about it.

Says Nomi, “In its 2019 Financial Stability Report, the Fed stressed that ‘the debt loads of businesses are historically high.’”

What’s more, the Fed is also aware of a phenomenon we tipped you off to earlier this year: “CLOs, or collateralized loan obligations, are a Wall Street product stuffed with corporate loans,” says Nomi. “If that sounds familiar to you, there’s a reason. Wall Street is doing exactly what they did with mortgage loans before the 2008 financial crisis, but with corporate ones.

“If the corporate debt bomb detonates, it could make 2008 look like child’s play,” Nomi warns.

“The Fed doesn’t have nearly the amount of ‘dry powder’ it had to fight the last crisis.”

Yep. Interest rates might be too low for cuts to make a difference. And the Fed’s balance sheet might be too big now to get blown up fivefold as it was from 2008–2014.

That’s the bad news. The worse news is that rate cuts and renewed money printing might reinflate the “big, fat, ugly bubble” — only to set us up for an even bigger collapse down the road.

[Ed. note: Crisis now or crisis later? Zig Ziglar always told me recessions are usually caused by fear. Money stops circulating or slows down as business & consumer fear the future and spend less, which in turn makes the situation worse…people cut back, getting fewer haircuts or shopping at Walmart…employers, feeling a pinch, cut back on inventory and employees!  Money doesn’t vanish, it just stops circulating due to fear. Whichever the answer, you’ll want to build up a nest egg].


Whether you’re a prepper or not, learn these urban survival skills now and increase your odds of survival, today or in the future!
Lessons from the Great Depression
Preparing for an economic depression

"Poverty is simply having more problems than solutions." Robert T. Kiyosaki

Learn from the past: prepping for the next Great Depression.
Wondering how can you survive an economic collapse and avoid
poverty? Perhaps Robert T. Kiyosaki summed it up best when he
wrote: "Poverty is simply having more problems than solutions."
Think about this from a prepper's perspective: strive to be
prepared to have more solutions than problems. To ensure you
have more solutions than problems, be creative, be flexible and
adapt. Below is how to help survive the next Great Depression.
But as every survival enthusiast knows that preparedness is the key to surviving a disaster. So, why wait before it’s too late? You might as well learn the basics on how to create your own survival kit and live to tell the tale than regret not having done so when the need for it arises. All I need from you is your undivided attention, your commitment to push through after reading this article, the dedication to maintain your survival kit, and more importantly share it with the people you love.


Here are my ideas for new bill [s] to improve government


>Since term limits never seems to gain any traction perhaps we should entertain the idea of zero pay for elected officials after their third term in office…give them their office, expenses, health insurance while in office and a living allowance only=much like our Founding Fathers and see how many decide to remain in office.


>Perhaps we need to resurrect a new version of ‘war’ bonds, perhaps calling them “government bailout bonds” to help pay off our national debt and/or to help pay for our massive deficits and proposed new spending projects since fewer foreign nations are buying our debt!

>An idea I've suggested before:  Eliminate ALL city/state & Federal taxes on the 1st $25K of income for all people. 41% of citizens pay no Federal tax, many city/state taxes are killers for many. Tax laws that encourage more US manufacturing/jobs & elimination of red tape would help too.

More Updates:

Handwell [Backup] Well Pumps

We manufacture a series of easy-to-install "Narrow-Profile" deep-well pumps, engineered to install in the well alongside your existing electric water well pump system. All of our manual well water pumps can be permanently installed for daily use, or stored and ready for loss of power


How to start a neighborhood barter club


People need to become more self-reliant, not more dependent on government.

How to Survive the War on the Middle Class

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Rosefield is a classic traditional cabin, which can be built for less than $6,000. The cabin is open plan, which has the advantage of making it far easier, cheaper and quicker to build than more intricate cabins with separate rooms. This particular plan also includes a detailed cabin assembly diagram and step-by-step instructions which includes a foundation guide.  [282sf’]


Free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom!

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You Can’t Buy Life Insurance After You’re Dead

Not Prepared?


That's Bad News...


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A Smoking Frog Feature, Shallow Planet Production


Mike said...

Fear, indeed, is a huge factor in starting & perpetuating a financial crisis. It's happened frequently [that's why headlines w/ 'PANIC' are so common] over the centuries. Given the cyclical nature of economics [& stupidity of citizens/investors/government/Fed] the deck always seems stacked against common sense and few people today seem to ever be prepared for downturns...recall how well paid government employees absolutely whined when paychecks were delayed for a few weeks!

Mike said...

Intriguing. I'm not entirely convinced a recession is going to hit this is likely however, given the economy has done better than anticipated for some time now. Germany & much of the EU isn't doing so well though which doesn't bode well. I saved the post you made which instructed readers to keep an eye on Japan [which now owns more of US debt than China]...if they fall, my fear factor will be on high alert.

Cindy said...

Doom and gloom and a non-stop narrative of 'crisis' crap from the Left in its 'dump trump' efforts...they take glee in bashing all things Trump including a volatile economy EVEN though they're masters of disaster when it comes to managing cities such as Baltimore, LA, San Fran, Seattle, NY, Chicago where crime, filth and homelessness abound-well done Dems!

Dave said...

No matter what happens with the U.S. economy, most of the credit or the blame is going to go to President Trump. And now that the U.S. economy appears to be headed for big trouble, the mainstream media is salivating over what this could mean for Trump’s chances of winning in 2020. Within the past few days, the New York Times, the Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC and Fox News have all run stories about Trump and the economy, and they are all perpetuating the false premise that presidents should be held accountable