Poor Man Survival
Self Reliance tools for
independent minded people…
A Digest of Urban
Poor Man Survival
Self Reliance tools for
independent minded people…
A Digest of Urban
: What important
trends do you see unfolding in 2023?
: Perhaps the
biggest turning point in recent modern history will turn out to be 2020.
Governments and their minions found novel ways to gain huge amounts of control.
These things were well underway before 2020, but since Covid, they’ve all gone
hyperbolic. That trend will accelerate this year—albeit with some much-delayed
Four areas stand out.
First, a relatively inconsequential flu, followed by a vaccine
hysteria, got far more voluntary compliance to all manner of extreme measures
than most anyone could have imagined. The powers that be found that the public
is vastly more likely to do as they’re told if the rationale is health rather
than politics, ideology, economics, or the like. So we can count on many
replays of this tune, including mandatory vaccine passports and lockdowns.
drumbeat against the newly-minted enemy element, carbon, has reached manic
levels. A substantial part of the population, and a large majority of youth,
have been convinced that Global Warming will destroy the planet unless
we go Green, stop using fossil fuels, and attempt to run an industrial
civilization on windmills and sunshine. It stands a chance of destroying
Third, central banks are racing to impose CBDCs, while
governments run multi-trillion dollar deficits and bailouts, doubling and
tripling debt levels with little discussion. This is unprecedented.
Fourth, the widespread
acceptance of Wokism, racial quotas, aggressive LBGT++ promotion, ESG, and DIE.
There are serious discussions of race reparation payments and a Guaranteed
Annual Income. It’s part of an accelerated general collapse of traditional
What’s happening will, I think, be seen as a turning point
greater than either WW1 or WW2. And there’s an excellent chance we’re looking
at something akin to WW3 in the bargain. I don’t doubt that the era before 2020
will soon be referred to as the “Before Times,” a phrase that’s been used in
dystopian science fiction. And the future could resemble dystopian sci-fi.
The future is what this discussion is about. But I’m not a
fortuneteller and don’t have a crystal ball. All I can do is look at the facts.
Ideally, facts that not everybody is paying attention to—interpreted through a
lens that not everybody else is using.
Let’s briefly run down trends in the major markets. As with the
four societal trends I just mentioned, this isn’t the place to go into the
rationales, the “why” of things. I’ve spent time on that in past conversations.
I just want to call 2023 the way I see it.
In 2023, the big economic/financial story will likely be gold.
It’s been flat for the past decade and is reasonably priced relative to other
tangible assets. It’s going higher because there will be serious talk of
remonetizing it; BRICS don’t want to use the dollar—and for good reason. The
public, who’ve forgotten gold even exists, will start buying it, driven by
fear—fear of currency debasement, and fear of counterparty risk in the
financial markets. So physical gold is going to do really well in 2023. And gold
miners will do even better.
The great bull market that started in the early ’80s came to an
end in 2022. The bull market was driven by a number of things, but not least
has been the immense amount of currency units created by central banks. It’s
caused a very, very long business cycle—a super cycle. As it rolls over, we’re
going to see lots of trouble in the corporate sector as distortions, and
misallocations of capital caused by inflation are liquidated. Indebted
companies that catered to “Before Times” patterns will go bust. By the time
this bear market bottoms, the average guy will have forgotten the stock market
even exists. And will want to attack the person who reminds him it does.
The entire world-from governments to corporations to
individuals, are head over heels in debt. Encouraged partly by the fact that
rates have been dropping for 40 years—a lifetime.
Interest rates, however, have a life of their own. They’re not
entirely controlled by central banks, contrary to what most people have come to
believe. The world will start to see bonds as a triple threat to capital—higher
rates, currency risk, and default risk.
The interesting thing here is that bonds are not generally owned
by the retail public but by institutions—ETFs, mutual funds, pension funds,
hedge funds, and the like. Institutions have a hard time justifying owning
bonds with ratings of less than BBB. The bonds of struggling companies will be
downgraded this year, and they’ll have to be offloaded. But to whom? Because
other institutions can’t buy them either. At some point, bonds will be a huge
bargain, and I hope to urge buying them. But it won’t be in 2023.
Let me reemphasize what I’ve said many times over the last
several years: If you own any bonds, sell them yesterday morning. At the
latest, sell them tomorrow morning. They’re going a lot lower.
Real estate floats on a sea of debt in the US and the rest of
the Anglo-Saxon world. If he can’t borrow money, the average guy can’t buy
property. And he can’t sell it either, because the buyer needs financing.
Housing is in big trouble, as are bricks and mortar retail and all manner of
With interest rates going up, while economic activity goes down,
property is headed down. Real estate is very overpriced all over the world.
Real estate is something that you need to live in, to build on—but it’s become
a speculative vehicle financed by debt. Not good.
In today’s world, currencies are all fiat. Just pieces of
paper or digits created arbitrarily by governments and their central banks.
They’re all in trouble, with no exceptions. The US dollar’s liquidity has kept
it strong, and a debt crisis could even give it strength as the world scrambles
for dollars to pay dollar debt. But these aren’t strong fundamentals. If you
need a currency, buy the Swiss franc. And gold. And Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has a chance of becoming an actual currency competitive
with government fiat currencies. From a worried individual’s point of view, it
can be as private as buried gold coins if used properly. And the perfect
transfer mechanism to get your assets across international borders; that’s
critical in today’s world.
But there’s still a bubble in the cryptocurrency world, even
though Bitcoin has collapsed from its 2021 peak of $69,000 to about $17,000. Is
it the bottom? Not yet, if only because the chaos created by the FTX scandal,
which vaporized $30 to $40 billion worth of “altcoins,” isn’t over yet.
There are about 20,000 altcoins, and almost all of them should,
more correctly, if impolitely, be called shitcoins. Take dogecoin (I think it
should be pronounced doggycoin), which was created as a joke, having no value,
no use, nothing. But, amazingly, it still has a market cap of $13 billion
On the one hand, as the Western world’s economy slows down,
there’s going to be less use of oil. But on the other hand, the powers that be
are very anti-carbon-based fuels, and they’re going to make them harder to come
That said, we’ve got to remember that the United States and
Western Europe are no longer “where it’s at.” The US is only 4% of the world’s
population, about the same for Europe. The other 90%+ of the world cares less
and less what the West says or does. Instead, they care about what the Chinese
and Indians do and increasing their own wealth. Oil, coal, natural gas, and
uranium are all going higher. And the stocks of companies that produce them are
going much higher.
: Where do you
think the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (and NATO) is headed in 2023?
What are the broader implications?
: It’s funny,
because we don’t really know what’s happening on the front lines. It’s long
been said that the first casualty in any war is the truth. That basically means
you can’t believe anything that you hear coming from almost any source
regarding this conflict.
I’ve been pretty clear about how I feel regarding this. It’s a
border war between two shithole countries in a region where wars like this have
been going on for a thousand years. Russia actually has a very good historical
case for reacquiring the Donbas and Crimea, and that’s all they wanted to start
with. But the situation has gotten out of control—courtesy of the US Deep
Where’s it going at this point? Is it true that the Russian army
is terminally incompetent and ill-equipped? An overseas Russian friend said
that a member of his family told him a firsthand story about a relative who was
drafted and sent to the front lines with no equipment, no rifle, no helmet, and
no rain gear. It appears the stories about wholesale corruption and looting of
the assets of the Russian military may be true.
On the other hand, the Zelensky regime forces appear to have
taken huge casualties. A large number of the military-aged men in the Ukraine
have left the country. Those who stayed have sustained perhaps 100,000 to
130,000 deaths. And generally speaking, when you have a military death, you
probably have two disabling injuries. The Zelensky regime may be running out of
The Russian army may be bad, but at this point, there’s not much
left to the Ukrainian army either. That’s on top of the fact that the Ukraine,
long known as the most corrupt country in Europe—including Albania—is nothing
but a fiction to launder money for politicians in the West. I don’t doubt that
many of the weapons the US has given them have been sold to nasty regimes and
groups in the Third World, enriching well-placed Ukrainian military and
politicians. They’ll come back to bite the US.
What’s going to happen?
Now that winter is here, assuming the Russian army isn’t totally
incompetent, it will launch a real attack on the Ukraine. Putin is now almost
forced to take out the whole country because this thing has gotten out of
control. Putin needs a regime change in Kiev, a rectification of borders, and
for the Ukraine—which means “borderland”—to be a buffer state.
The implications of the conflict—since Russia is a major energy
and grain producer—are a crimp in world food and energy supplies. And higher
prices for both.
: The US is the most
polarized it has been since the 1860s. What do you see happening in 2023?
: I’ve said many
times that individual nation-states are not part of the cosmic firmament; they
come and go. The colors of the map on the wall are always running, and that
will be especially true this decade.
Even in the US, which has been one of the world’s most stable
countries, things could change radically. Regions of the US have less and less
in common with each other, entirely apart from the fact that the country has
divided into red people and blue people. And they really don’t like each other.
It’s a semi-religious divide where people are incapable of having a calm,
rational discussion about politics or economics. There’s no longer much
communication, and what there is, is emotion-based at this point. That’s not
I’m not saying that it’s going to happen this year, but by the
end of this decade, there are likely to be some serious secession movements in
the US. Whether they’re formal or informal, violent or peaceful, is an open
question. But the US is coming apart at the seams for lots of reasons. It’s
devolved from an honest yeoman republic into a multicultural domestic empire.
It’s become unstable, with a bankrupt government, a rapidly depreciating fiat
currency, disintegrating traditions, a degrading culture, and corrupt moral
: It’s pathetic
but, unfortunately, true that most financial markets revolve around what the
monetary central planners do.
Is a dramatic Fed pivot back to extreme money printing on the
: I would hate to
be Jerome Powell at this point because, on the one hand, the US government will
continue running $1 to $2 trillion deficits as far as the eye can see. And
those deficits are going higher when the economy collapses over the next couple
of years. We’re likely to see $3 or $4 trillion deficits. How can they be
funded? At this point, only from money printing—in accordance with the
doctrines of Modern Monetary Theory.
Money printing is
currency inflation. The result is rising consumer prices.
But on the other hand, they have to curb rising prices because
it’s creating chaos, destroying people’s assets, causing a declining standard
of living, and making the serfs restive. It’s a classic case of “between a rock
and a hard place.”
They want rates low to stave off collapse—because corporations,
individuals, and the government, have tons of debt. Right now, the US
government is paying around 3-4% interest on its debt. If it pays 6% interest,
half of its total spending will be just interest on the debt. Interest will be
a bigger burden than Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, or the military. The
government is going to keep those 87,000 new IRS agents busy.
The Federal Reserve wants to keep interest rates low for lots of
reasons. But they’re raising interest rates because they want to discourage
people from borrowing and encourage people to pay off their debts. Because of
the way the fractional reserve banking system works, reducing bank loans also
reduces the money supply, which in turn which reduces price inflation. They’re
actually in an untenable, schizophrenic position.
There’s no way out for them other than a total reform of the
system. And that’s unlikely to happen in this decade, barring a real collapse. It’s going to be ugly and chaotic.
Disasters keep devastating our nation.
wildfires, pandemics... it never ends.
And while many Americans
know they should be prepared for a crisis, most are not.
The real reason? Money.
So many families live dime by dime, and there's nothing left over to stock up
on emergency items.
Let's face it – life is
expensive. Food, shelter, electricity,
heat, phones, and much more don't come for a low amount. Sometimes there's
"too much month at the end of the money."
Thankfully, there are
easy ways to begin prepping for a crisis even when you're budget conscious.
For example, you can use
coupons for items like hygiene products, Ziploc bags, batteries, pet food and insect repellants.
Another tip? Look for specials. Retail sites have almost anything you could
think of, and many times at a more than fair price.
The past few years have taught us the importance of stocking up
for shortages and emergencies. Easily build your stockpile with these tips.
Buying potatoes in bulk can help reduce food costs if you can use them before they go bad. Use these storage tips to keep potatoes fresh longer.
Do you really need to hire a pro? Whether it’s a flat tire or a
clogged sink, try taking a crash course in self-sufficiency and handle the
repair or maintenance task yourself.
Why do you need an
60 seconds of hand cranking provides more than 45 minutes of radio
Radios: Having a couple small, portable radios
on hand is going to be a must. If there’s a disaster, you’ll
need to listen to the radio to get news about what is happening around you….grab
a TacRight Emergency Radio:
is a go bag?...
Be Prepared for
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