Surviving Stagflation - Inflation Under Biden

 

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Can you start a business that will survive the stagflation crisis?

Business does not stop merely because a nation or system collapses. As long as humans exist there will always be supply, demand and trade — our very survival depends on it. Historically, the way we trade during crisis events tends to streamline and simplify compared to the complex economies of boom times and adapting to this change is essential to making your particular business a fulcrum point within your community.

That is to say, consumer demand is going to reduce down to the most basic necessities and anyone that is able to provide those necessities in an efficient manner is going to do well. Also, any business that stops relying on supplies from far away and focuses on production of goods from home will remain viable while people that cling to the old days of "on-time delivery" and brokering prefabricated trinkets from overseas is going to fail hard.

This does not mean you should abandon your existing business if it does not currently meet these standards. Keep it running as long as you are able, just know that the party is going to end soon and you need to have a Plan-B. Start a side business that is self-sufficient, make sure it focuses on production and build from there. It is likely that this side business will one day become your primary business as our system continues to destabilize.

What we are facing is an engineered storm of negative circumstances. As I write this, stagflation is becoming a household word in the U.S., just as I warned it would over the past several years. Prices on goods are skyrocketing, but the real inflationary disturbance has not started yet. Corporations have been hiding stagflation by eating the extra costs on wholesale, and they have been quietly reducing package sizes little by little while keeping prices the same (shrinkflation). All of this is about to come to a swift end as we enter the holiday season. Corporations and suppliers are going to raise prices drastically and consumers will now feel the pinch.

The past shows us the way, however. There are certain trades and businesses that continue to do well even in the worst of times. First, we need to understand how our trade environment will change before we can succeed within it.

Local trade, barter and black markets

This might sound obvious, but I don't think many people even in the preparedness movement truly accept that everything about trading is going to change. It is unlikely that most of the items you purchase or barter will be found in a "store" or one-stop-shop or even an open bazaar. Things will get a little more tedious because you will have to network with other producers within your community to get what you need, and you will have to meet with each of them individually to trade. Depending on the level of organization in your area a barter market will hopefully form, and someone will have to provide the space and security to ensure safe trading is possible for everyone involved (this may be a good business idea).

*People are going to be trading everywhere, but a central marketplace might not be open regularly and so your business will be done through personalized transactions. Depending on the scale of threats at the time, you may want to keep all transactions private. That said, eventually, an open market will have to be established to make it easy for everyone to find what they need and trade faster.

The level of instability around you will dictate the trading strategies you will use. If the system is still somewhat functional and rule of law is still in place to a degree, then you might continue to use dollars, but alternative currencies (hopefully commodity-backed currencies) will have to be used as well. If the system is completely broken but government oppression is not a big issue, then regular barter markets will become a mainstay. If government intrusion and oppression are serious concerns, then black markets will become the order of the day.

The types of businesses that do well in these environments are those that have done well during past crisis events. Many of the ideas I list here are taken from inflationary crashes like Weimar, Germany, deflationary crashes like the Great Depression, and civil war environments like Bosnia. Let's get started...

Communications

Without communications networks nothing else will function; establishing a trade network will be very difficult. A business setting up post-collapse comms could be a highly lucrative one. This could include stocking radio equipment now and using it for barter later, or, if you have the knowledge you could set up and sell repeaters for your community. You could also work in an advisory capacity for a group or community, helping them to establish solid comms.

Another form of communication is printing services. Having the supplies of ink and paper to print newsletters, fliers, posters etc. would allow you to become a home-based printing shop for the community. Information needs to get around somehow, and if it's not being discussed on the radio then it will be discussed in print. Print communications might make a big comeback in the near term.

Natural resource procurement

The key here is to build your business around the resources and raw materials that are readily available in your region. For example, if you live near the ocean, then learn to make sea salt in large quantities. Although store-bought sea salt contains no iodine, homemade sea salts do contain trace amounts vital to the human diet. And salt has always been highly prized in every civilization for meat preservation without refrigeration.

If you live near forested areas, focus on timber for building materials or firewood. Heat in cold weather is a huge issue, and in a grid-down scenario, millions of people will be turning to natural heat sources in the winter, which means either wood heat or coal and oil heat. This requires a larger initial investment for chain saws or two-man saws and other tools, as well as a stock of gasoline to run them. For making lumber you will need a home sawmill which is a hefty investment but could well be worth it as you become one of the only sources for building supplies in your area.

If you have ample wild game near your home and you are a skilled hunter you could provide meat to your community for trade. This will cost you ammo, but the better a hunter you are the less ammo you will use. Fishing is a potential revenue source, and gardening and farming will of course be vital. Research the resources in your region thoroughly and think hard about what you could procure and produce using local raw materials.

Repurposed goods

The relatively new economic model of "break it and buy a new one" is going to end. A massive market demand is going to rise for people that repair and refurbish existing machinery and items. Think of it kind of like an eBay business or flea market business that becomes as big as Walmart.

The idea here would be to find a vital niche — you could focus on small engine repair working on generators, chainsaws and other important items. If you have sewing skills, you could repair clothing and blankets or sleeping bags. If you are a gunsmith, you can repair damaged firearms. If electronics is your thing, then you could collect parts from broken computers and use them to rebuild working computers, etc.

You can also function as a middleman for the people that fix things, finding a wide spectrum of necessities that are apparently broken and then trading them to the specific people that know how to fix them. You become a kind of procurer for the tradesmen, you just have to know what you are looking for and what is actually in demand.

Newly manufactured items might still exist, but they will be expensive due to stagflation and most likely rationed by either corporate retailers or the government. The word "rationing" is about to become a dominant household term just like stagflation, and we should expect government controls on purchasing including digital ration cards and restrictions according to vaccination status on federal distribution programs. If they can't control trade through the covid passports, then they will crash the supply chain and try to control trade through rationing. This means that used and repaired goods will be big business.

Household products and comforts

Soaps, cloth diapers, toilet items, lotions, candles, wooden bowls, plates and cups — the list goes on and on. A lot of people will have these items stocked, but many will not, or they will run out and need more. Just because you are in the middle of an economic crisis does not mean people will not be looking for basic comforts. Many of them can be easily made with natural raw materials or repurposed materials at home.

There will also be a demand for psychological relief through stimulants. Meaning, people will still be trading for alcohol and other drugs. Homebrewers and marijuana growers will probably do well in almost any trade environment, and historically this has always been the case, even during prohibition.

Home heating

I mentioned this briefly above, but I cannot stress enough how massive the home heating issue is going to be in the near future. If there are any electrical grid problems the first thing people are going to be looking for is off-grid heating. This could include wood stoves, propane heating, pellet stoves and so on. People will also likely need to close off large portions of their homes in the winter and only use a couple of rooms in order to save fuel and heat. People with basements will end up spending the majority of their time in the winter below ground because this is the most heat-efficient option.

Being able to supply wood fuel to areas with few trees will be big business. Propane might become expensive, so stocking some for trade would be smart. Repairing or building wood stoves would make you a key business in your area. Also, sleeping bags and other passive items for warmth will be in high demand when people can't get fuel for heating. Very few people will have the money to set up a solar system large enough to run electric heaters for most of the day, so the market demand for fuel-based stoves will be constant.

Home health care

If you are a medical professional such as a nurse, doctor or paramedic then there will be demand for your services. Vaccine passports will be used as an excuse to deny people medical care at hospitals and you can fill the gap by offering home visits to identify and treat various ailments. To be sure, many pharmaceuticals will be in short supply, but if you have a stockpile and also integrate natural health care options then you should be in business for a long time.

Keep in mind that the establishment will seek to interfere with home-based medical care, so being discreet will be helpful, and having the protection of your community will be best.

Security

Depending on the scale of the crash there will no doubt be a shortage of security professionals to keep your community safe from crime, looting and outside threats. Any person that is able-bodied and actually knows how to fight, how to shoot, knows tactics and is not inclined to run away at the first sign of danger will be a rare commodity. Security services could also include basic consultation for a large property, neighborhood or town advising them on the best ways to protect their homes.

Keep in mind that covid mandates are forcing up to half of police forces in many places to leave their jobs. If this continues, local law enforcement will collapse. The military and the National Guard are in the same situation. They will never be able to find enough people to fill the void and even if they did, they would be using people that are more likely to harm you than protect you. You will have to provide your own security.

There are a lot of blowhards out there that claim they have the knowledge to do this, but when the stakes are high, they will fold and run. Understand that big talk does not always translate into expertise or action. Finding people that will not run is going to become the top priority of every community. Finding people that have the physical ability to handle the stresses of security and potential combat is also going to be an issue.

Endeavor to become a skilled security specialist and you will always be needed within your local economy.

The thinker's market

Economic crisis often cuts away the fat. Businesses and skill sets that are only useful in first world boom times will fall away and people that rely on them will not survive. Your average office worker, manager or service worker is not going to do well. Brick and mortar will evolve into something very different, and online revenues may not exist or will be restricted according to your politics. You have to be able to think outside the box.

Focus on necessities and your chances increase exponentially. Focus on production and you remove the middlemen. Focus on local resources and materials and you remove reliance on outside imports. The ideal survival business would be a producer making a necessary product using materials he can easily find right around his own home. This might not be your situation, but you can get as close as possible using your ingenuity.

Knowing the local market and knowing the demand is the other factor. The key to any business is understanding what people want or need and how those needs change according to events.

To truth and knowledge,

Brandon Smith

 *In our area flea markets are booming as online selling has become expensive due to the Post Office hikes, fees, etc.

SIDEBAR

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With inflation stubbornly sticking around, stocking the pantry may seem like a challenge.

Yet, there are ways to stock the pantry to ensure you save time and money in a pinch. These are some of the ways Beth Eggleston, a Meijer Nutrition Education Specialist, advises people to stock their pantry.

Stocks and Broths

Soup may come to mind when stocks and broths are mentioned, but they are more versatile than one might think. Eggleston cooks both her meat and grains in stock. “I like to cook chicken breasts in broth. I’ll do it in the crock pot and then it’s a lot more juicy and with more flavor.” says Beth, “I will use broth to cook grains because it gives it that extra oomph, that extra flavor as well”.

Beans and Rice

Stocking the pantry with beans and grains may be a great side dish, but it can also become the base to a rice bowl. After cooking the beans or rice, adding toppings can lead to a quick meal.

Packaged Meats or Fish

There are many types of salads that may benefit from the use of packaged meats. Eggleston uses canned tuna to top her niçoise salad. Niçoise salads generally include lettuce, green peppers, eggs, green beans, potatoes, and some form of preserved fish on top.

Pasta

The pasta aisle is a very crucial element within pantry stockings. The wide variety of styles and ingredients can be utilized in a plethora of recipes. “There are tons of traditional pastas, but now there’s a lot of bean-based pasta, gluten-free, protein-packed pastas, whole wheat grain pastas,” explained Eggleston. Stuffed shells and pasta bakes are just two examples of the possibilities that can be used on a quick meal night.

Read the full story here.

 

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