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Monday, January 9, 2023

Get ready for a wild economic ride


Poor Man Survival

Self Reliance tools for independent minded people…

ISSN 2161-5543

A Digest of Urban Survival Resources


Get ready for a wild economic ride

Shaky economic times - Amazon CEO Andy Jassy announced on Wednesday the company will lay off 18,000 employees, which is 8,000 more than expected in the New York Times' reporting from November. The number includes those who had been laid off in November. Jassy said "several teams are impacted; however, the majority of role eliminations are in our Amazon Stores and PXT organizations." 


Get ready for a wild 2023... We're in the eye of a financial hurricane... The year of the hangover... A crappy new year for many folks... Biden is the villain of 2023


Key trends that will drive the economy & markets…

Example, the mountain of global debt continues to expand, and the cost of servicing it is suddenly skyrocketing due to higher interest rates.

Inflation, while starting to moderate, is still not anywhere under control.

US Money Supply is now shrinking for the 1st time in at a least 60 years.

And the rest of world is rushing to find ways to de-dollarize trade.


Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the U.S. will avoid a recession in 2023. So does President Joe Biden. I wouldn't put too much stock in the economic predictions of politicians.


Yellen and Biden didn't see the calamity of 2022 coming. And neither even acknowledges we were in a recession last year, despite the fact the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that U.S. gross domestic product ("GDP") contracted in the first and second quarters... the textbook definition of a recession.


The late Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman… Using his framework, it was easy to predict that prices were going to soar in 2022.

Friedman understood that inflation is always caused by the same thing... a more rapid increase in the supply of money than in the output of goods and services. Never before in history had our nation's money supply increased so much so fast than following the pandemic in 2020.

Friedman understood that it's difficult to get rid of inflation once it takes hold. He explained that there's no easy, painless way to cure it. The only way is to persist with a combination of higher interest rates, higher unemployment, higher taxes, and a contraction in credit and the money supply.

Using Friedman's analogy, 2020 and 2021 were the party years. We were all happy and drunk on the Fed's money printing.

In 2022, we began feeling dizzy and sick. We realized we "drank" too much and that the party was over.

We haven't gone through the real pain yet. We're now about to pay the price for our excess.

You can't bring down inflation with record employment.

Last month, the Fed said the unemployment rate needs to rise to at least 4.5% from today's near-record low of 3.7%. That means around 1.5 million folks will lose their jobs as the economy contracts.

And that means big trouble for our economy.

A recession in the U.S. is all but inevitable this year...

The best recession predictor just flashed a major warning signal. The spread between the three-month and 10-year Treasury yields recently inverted.

Over the past 60-plus years, this spread has inverted eight times. And every single time a recession followed... with no false signals. It's the recession predictor the Fed uses


Opinions on a recession vary

Concerns that attempts by the Federal Reserve, as well as other significant financial institutions, to take down a sharp rise in inflation will initiate a big economic setback have become more prominent as the calendar turns to 2023.

The U.S. stock market is on a path to its steepest annual loss in more than ten years. Below are the three economic recession possibilities and the likely market response.

A Quick and Mild Recession

Numerous observers believe the economy has sufficient inertia to develop moderately until at least the beginning of 2023.

In November, U.S. firms recruited more employees than anticipated and hiked salaries, mostly allaying fears of a recession.

The economy added 263,000 positions in November, exceeding Wall Street’s estimates, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, keeping near a 50-year low.

As per Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, this significant softening in the labor market will not be accompanied by a recession.

According to the forecast of the Congressional Budget Office, the amount of employed Americans would increase from 158 million in 2022 to 174 million in 2052.

Pollak stated the economy ought to be content with even fewer jobs added in the years to come. In the absence of an increase in the U.S. population, their predictions foreshadow only 45,000 net job additions each month during the next 30 years.

Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, believes the stock market will likely drop before the recession’s official start, with likely growth following it.

A J.P. Morgan strategist opined it will be difficult for the economy to rebound from a recession in 2023, despite the fact many economists believe it will be moderate and temporary, followed by a robust recovery.

“Swamp” Recession Ahead

David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said instead of plunging into an economic dive, such a recession might be more akin to sinking into an economic swamp, indicating it would be difficult for the economy to recover. This article appeared in The Patriot Brief and has been published here with permission.

For the first time in history, the U.S. is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once:

  • High government debt to gross domestic product, like the post-war 1940s
  • Excessive stock market valuation on par with the 1929 and 2000 bubbles
  • A resource-driven inflationary crisis environment comparable with the 1970s

Things are about to get much worse...

I predicted when Biden and his Leftists operators (the real people who are running our country) got into power; they’d work on destroying the Middle Class & our freedoms!  The Socialist-Dems  were even more aggressive this year in their mission to "fundamentally transform" this country.


As 2022 draws to a close, America is in a race against time. Can we survive the last two years of Biden’s presidency? Have we reached a tipping point as a result of his ineptitude and malice? Can we repair our world as quickly as Biden, or whoever is running our country in place of our senile president, is destroying it?

Biden and his Leftist radicals know his term in office expires soon - and there's still so much "transformation" to inflict upon America.


With the world getting faster and crazier every year, there are some things that will never change.


And that’s why being self-reliant and taking personal responsibility for one’s life is always so important.


Omnibus Shows Congress’s Priorities: Authoritarianism and War

There are dark economic clouds on the horizon. I believe we're about to enter a deep, prolonged period of slowing economic growth. And things are going to get worse before they get better

  Communists Demoralize America’s Blue Chip Firms Through TikTok Videos




First 9 Ways on How To Survive the Coming Great Depression

Resolve to Stash More Cash This Year

You can grow savings faster than you might think. Why not resolve to save more cash in the new year and enjoy the rewards of saving?

Be Debt-Free This Year

No matter why you are in debt, these tips can help pay that debt off. With some dedicated dollar stretching and these smart money moves, you can dive into a debt-elimination diet and become debt-free this year.

What Won't Happen in 2023

At the beginning of each new year, you read and hear a lot of financial predictions for the coming year. In the interest of being different, here is a forecast of financial things that will NOT happen this year.


The Beginner's Guide To Emergency Food Storage

Having a large food stockpile is one of the main goals of every prepper. Unfortunately, many newbies think that all they have to do is run to the store and fill a cart with canned foods. This is a costly mistake. You need to take some time to figure out what foods to store and exactly how to store them.

Most of my readers already know the basics of emergency food storage, but I also have quite a few readers who are just getting started—people who have never used any food storage methods other than their refrigerator. This guide is my attempt to help them get started, and it's also a good refresher for more experienced preppers.

By the end of this guide, you will know the basics of food storage so you can start stockpiling the right foods in the right places to ensure your family has something to eat after a major disaster...

The Beginner's Guide To Emergency Food Storage




Be Ready For The Unexpected-Emergency Supplies Available

Natural & Man-Made Disasters happen frequently-Is your family prepared for the unexpected?

·        Emergency solar/hand cranked radios; First Aid supplies, Emergency kits, 72-Hour Food Kits, Bug-Out Backpacks

·         Open M-F 9:30-5 @ Stor-Your-Stuff 151 N Blacks Corners Rd Imlay City 48444 [near 4th St] *While supplies last-limited quantities.


Natural disasters don't wait for a convenient time

And you shouldn't wait to prepare either. In some cases there is little to no warning.

Prepare now to lessen the impact of disasters and emergencies


Remember:  You can’t buy life insurance after you’re dead!


Super Emergency Survival Kit

  •  Solar phone charger
  • 72-hour 4Patriot emergency food pack [25 year shelf life
  • 4Patriot Greens sample pack [Power supplement]
  • 3 Luna Nutrition bars [assorted]+Sunmaid raisin pouch
  • Cleaning Wipe Pack
  • Steel River Emergency Tent
  • Mini  First Aid kit
  • TRS 5N1 EDC folding tool
  • 3-package meal sampler
  • Paracord bracelet w/ compass
  • Reusable Face Mask
  • Personal Water Filter Straw
  • 11-Piece Emergency Survival Kit 

And more…


Useful Resources from our storefront-See new items!

You Can’t Buy Life Insurance After You’re Dead-Prepare NOW for Emergencies…

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Lee said...

Local retailers & even many solo online sellers saw a significant slowdown in sales over the holidays; we're seeing more layoffs also. What you've been suggesting [thanks to Biden] is happening.

Nina said...

Folks, a recession this year is virtually inevitable. Let me take this opportunity to remind everyone that recessions are a fact of life in financial markets.

JoHanna said...

About 125K US workers lost their jobs last year

Mitch said...

Tech layoffs are happening at the fastest rate since the pandemic: last week Amazon announced plans to lay off 18K+ employees and Salesforce said it’s cutting 8K. Online styling service Stitch Fix said it would let go of 20% of staff, while struggling crypto lender Genesis slashed 30%.

Tina said...

Ever since bastard Biden took office, our country has been on a wild ride and frankly, we're sick of his incompetent crap.

Rick said...

We already see shortages at grocery stores this year on a handful of items. Most of us will get by if there is a champagne or beer shortage, as you predicted. All thanks to the idiot in the WH!